GEOPHYSICAL WATCH

The Changes In The Earth

|  Solar Activity  |  Planets  |  Moon  |  Asteroids  |  Meteors & Comets  |

|  Earth's Wobble  |

|  World Weather  |  Earthquakes  |  Volcanism  |

SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar Storms, Sunspots, Ionic Wind, Magnetic Disturbances

ALMANAC | BACKGROUND | EARTHMONITOR LINKS |  LATEST
 

Visible Sun Of December 10 2007:  Credit: SOHO/MDI

[12-10-07 ECB]  Solar Activity rose from 0 where it was most of the past few months to 13 and then progressively all last week to stand at 42 as of December 9 with a radically rising Flux of 89.  A rise in the Flux this distinct is usually a herold of an increase in the Sunspot Count the following day.  Currently there is some apparent solar wind turbulence, still minor.  It is likely to increase, especially from December 11 or 12 as a result of another coronal hole in the solar atmosphere which is sending a new solar wind stream roughly towards the Earth and Mars as Earth draws rapidly into alignment with Mars.  It is likely that Solar Cycle 24 has begun and that Sunspot Activity will be more active throughout December from a series of alignments. The Mars | Earth Alignment is likely to bring the greatest rise in Sunspot Activity, sometime about mid-December but because of the long close coupling of these two planets, we most likely are already in the influence they are creating in solar activity. 

[12-10-07 ECB]  NASA reports no sunspots on the farside. But I gotta wonder what those spots in the pix are all about.  I mean, it is the Sun, right, and those are spots, right.....well.....
[Holographic image credit: SOHO/MDI] 

[12-3-07 ECB] Quick Solar Activity Forecast From Planetary Alignments:    The Solar Flux was rising as of the day before, usually a good harbinger of another rise in the Sunspot Count to come today.  Apparently the clustering of the solar system into a six body grand alignment is already casting its spell over the Sun.  Expect more volatility in solar activity during the next 45 days than previously indicated here. The peak of this activity is most likely to come about mid-December.

IMPORTANT NOTE WHICH MOST PEOPLE STILL ARE NOT GETTING:

The Sun is at minimum levels of activity.  Thus the climate patterns this year have nothing to do with solar cycles and are entirely related to global warming phenomenon produced by tectonic causes.

ALVESTAD SOLAR ACTIVITY  GRAPH AS OF December 9 2007
CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

This graph line pix is a keeper!  Does this graph provide an image of absolute Solar Minimum, that moment of lowest solar activity which marks the end point of a solar cycle and the beginning of the next one.  It's not completely certain, the Sun can often be quixotic and unpredictable in its activity levels.  The length of the cycle can vary by as much as two years on either side of its average length. But nonetheless,  the space between 10-12-07 and 11-06-07 sure looks like a dead ringer to me for the moment of Solar Minimum.  In that space we see solar flux (black line) virtually flat line, sunspot count (red line) at zero.  The magnetic index (blue line) is somewhat elevated in the center of the period but this fluctuation in the Earth's upper atmosphere magnetic field is almost certainly a product of the Full Moon. (It is not a creation of changing solar activity so much as it must be a shift in the depth and shape of the Earth's atmosphere in response to the changing relative position of the Sun and Earth). Each of the highest magnetic flux peaks in the chart below occur within three days of the Full Moon and clearly the over-all trend line for the magnetic index pulses in the monthly Lunar orbital rhythm, revealing another profound truth about the coupling of the Earth-Moon-Sun system which I had not observed before today.  This Lunar-induced magnetic shift must influence the atmosphere directly and thus the weather.  It also will shift the ionic and cosmic energy levels in which humans function.  Bingo!!! The Full Moon crazy time connection to cosmic central is nakedly revealed right here in this chart.)

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/2007/sunspots/solar_12-10-07.gif

graph courtesy Jan Alvestad http://www.dxlc.com/solar/
Latest Graph: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/images/solar.gif
Daily Sunspot Numbers Are ISSN: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt

Sunspot Count Chart:  In this chart above the black line is the Solar Flux as measured in orbit near the Earth, the red line is the Sunspot Number and the blue line is a measure of the strength of the magnetic field in the Earth’s high atmosphere (called the Planetary A Index).  

Date       Flux Spots Area

Click here for NOAA Sunspot Table For Past 30 Days

[12-10-07 ECB]   NASA reports coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere.  NASA predicts a 1% to 10% probability of solar flares (X to M, respectively) during the next 48 hours. NASA  predicts there is a 6% to 25% probability of major magnetic disturbances in the high latitudes during the next 48 hours.    Pix Credit: NOAA  

[12-3-07 ECB] Average Solar Counts for 2007:  Flux:  83 in January, 77 in February, 74.4 in May, 69.1 in September..   Spots: ISSN - 16.9 in January, 10.6 in February,  4.8 for March, 3.7 in April, 11.7 in May. August continued the decline to 6.2, despite the Venus | Earth alignment and September's was 2.4, about as low as it gets.   OCTOBER'S AVERAGE WAS 0.9 and November's was 1.7.  Both numbers were well below the NASA predicted numbers of about 7.  Have we passed out of Cycle 23  through Solar Min early into Cycle 24?  I think so but this probably won't be confirmed until next month.

[11-12-07 ECB] Passage To Solar Cycle 24:    We did not make a full 30 days of 0 Sunspots, thus we still do not have a 0 month.  Even so, this might be Solar MIN.  Astrophysicists will not confirm this, however, for a few more months.  Their definition is based on a running mathematical monthly average which obscures somewhat the exact turning point of the cycle. (The MINIMA is calculated as a running 12 month average and so our definition of the event always lags for several months until the numbers work themselves out. Note to astrophysicists: we need a better method of calculation which can spot the passage within 90 days).

Magnetic Disturbances: (As Shown By Fluxgate Monitor at the University of Alaska )

12-10-07 ECB]  Fluxgate Monitor shows a couple of minor disturbances.  This is not likely to remain so calm for very long.  Expect choppy and occasionally fairly stormy during December.   (Always keep in mind that even during a Solar Min period, intense X class flares and CME's occasionally occur and produce intense magnetic storms in the atmosphere.)

CLICK ON GRAPH FOR EXPANDED VIEW

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/2007/sunspots/fluxgate_12-10-07.gif

Solar Cycle 24 Predictions: 

[4-30-07 ECB]  Another round of predictions for Solar Cycle 24 is now being tendered through NASA and other sources.  Using more traditional statistical methods, dates for the beginning of the next cycle have been pushed back to Spring 2008. We now have predicted dates ranging from NOW through to April/May 2008.   

[2-12-07 ECB] There are now three major focal points for predictions of the beginning of Cycle 24.  One cluster is for March 2007.  Another is for Fall 2007, which is probably NASA/NOAA's most prevalent opinion.  A third is January 2008.  I personally lean toward January 2008, which is the official prediction of the EU's apparently most prominent solar group. 

[3-26-07 ECB] Conservative predictions shown in red by Hathaway, NASA/NOAA, 2007, uses an older statistically-based model. Other predictions using Solar Dynamic Models indicate a higher peak for Cycle 24. Cycle 25 "seems" too low in this chart when compared to the past nine Activity Cycles

The Phoenix Five Revised Scenario will be based on the following logic:

These projected Solar Activity Cycles are of immense importance because of the impact of Cycle 19 on the shifting of the Spin Axis in 1958.  Cycle 24 may be as large as Cycle 19 and this may bring enough new shifting and tectonic motion in the Earth's crust to initiate major tectonic ruptures around the Pacific Rim.  From now through to the MAX of Cycle 24, increasing break up in the crust may be evident through a variety of increased tectonic activities.  During the MAX years of 2011-2014, the ruptures may begin the long predicted destructions in the Western U.S.  The final breakup of the crust may occur during the MAX period of Cycle 25, which is not likely to be so small as shown here.  In all cases we will be watching the Great Rift for the auguries.  Always, the windows of greatest danger will be the combination of the "whammies", New Moon or Full Moon, Perigee, Perihelion, Mercury aligned with another inner planet or even Jupiter, during the peak years of the Solar Cycle.  Add as well the Eclipse Nodal Cycle (18 years) to find the extremes in the Lunar Sygygy, the next of which occurs in 2022.   It is the splitting of the Great Rift which is the key to the entire Earth Changes phenomenon, including the current waves of Global Warming and acidification of the oceans.  The Wobble pumps the Great Rift and the Great Rift spreads the tectonic plates and forces the motions which cause them to buckle and grind against each other... and every once in a very great while the tectonic plates avalanche together en masse to redistribute their mass to achieve a better condition of balance in the spinning vortices of the Earth-Moon-Sun System.

SOLAR OUTPUT 1975-2005

This chart of the last three Solar Cycles is profoundly important for many reasons.  First, it demonstrates that scientists have learned in just the last 30 years that gross solar output is almost precisely parallel with the output of Sunspots. In other words, the Sunspot Cycle is actually the Solar Activity Cycle.  Secondly the chart demonstrates that Sunspot numbers define the amount of actual irradiance (also called luminescence) which strikes the top of the Earth's atmosphere. This measure in turn is telling us how much "heat" energy is being delivered to the Earth.  As we can see, the total energy has been declining in average since 1975.  With less primary heat, there is also less "reflected" or "green-housed" heat. To make a long story short, this chart demonstrates that neither the Sun, nor all its cycles, nor all the Greenhouse Gases, nor all the inflated academic claims concerning them, have much to do with the obvious warming of the Earth.  Ignorance is a wonderful thing.  It frees the mind to seek the right answers.  Go seek, find the real cause of Global Warming.

Chart by Robert A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art Project
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations.png

PLANETARY ACTIVITY: Skywatching, Planet Alignments, Moon, Asteroids

 The Inner Four Planets set inside the ring of the asteroid belt and the orbit of Jupiter. Each point of light is an actual representation of a planet, asteroid, or comet (plus the Sun of course), set within a true scale of distance as of April 1.   The positions of all numbered asteroids and all numbered comets in JPL's small-body database are shown (as of April 1, 2007 ).  Asteroids are yellow dots, comets are the pale blurry smudges.  We are looking down on the Solar System, overlooking the "North Pole" of the Earth.  As can be seen, our Solar System is a pretty busy place.

Courtesy Jet Propulsion Lab
Inner Solar System Orbit Diagrams
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/?ss_inner

NIGHT SKY FOR December 10, 2007 from Hopiland:  Click for full screen sky map

IMAGE PRODUCED BY MICA, software & data from the JPL & U.S. Naval Observatory

If you want to learn how to follow the stars at night and get deeper into the cosmic scene of the planetary alignments, how the solar system actually works, and so forth, start using this.  It is centered for 5 AM Greenwich Tuesdays (the map is changed for each weekly update) for Arizona Mountain Time (no daylight savings- 8 pm Monday evening) at 2000 meter elevation on approximately Black Mesa, Hopi Land.  This projection is produced by U.S. Navy Observatory MICA software and Ephemeris (Ephemeris is maintained on line by JPL).  It is more or less the world standard of algorithms for precisely tracking the cosmos and the software is such a snap to use to create powerful results, I cannot resist using it.  With this you can stand on the bridge of a vessel at sea and navigate like they used to do (but no longer, its all satellite positioning now, but old habits die not at all in the navies of the world).  Hopi Land was selected as the focal point because this provides the same approximate night sky to New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California (with a little time delay).  Sorry, you folks in the Pacific Northwest will not be able to use this very well, you need your own projection. As a rough and ready make-do, just face the South and look for the relevant items about 10 to 20 degrees lower than indicated in the chart.  Like California, expect events in the chart to be one hour earlier than your time.

PLANET WATCH: 

MARS IS APPROACHING (actually we are approaching Mars)

image source:  Don Peterson through Spaceweather.com

[11-26-07]  This was just photographed using a naked eye two nights ago.  It looks about the size of the Moon.  Don't miss it tonight!  (Just kidding, it was photographed through a telescope with a camera.   Within a couple of weeks it should be the brightest item in the sky but its size will only increase for those whose nearsightedness makes the stars a little blurry).  Unfortunately, all those above Lat.45 will have a very difficult time catching a glimpse of it.  Wet massive cloudy stormfronts will dominate your skies for many weeks.

NASA ADVISORY AND LINKS ON MARS: (text condensed) "An hour or so after the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look east. Weather permitting, you'll see red Mars rising in company with the nearly full Moon. It's a beautifully close pairing of two of the brightest objects in the heavens: sky map.  By the time you finish reading this sentence, you'll be 25 miles closer to the planet Mars. Earth and Mars are converging, and right now the distance between the two planets is shrinking at a rate of 22,000 mph--or about 25 miles per sentence. Ultimately, this will lead to a close approach in late December 2007 when Mars will outshine every star in the night sky. Of a similar encounter in the 19th century, astronomer Percival Lowell wrote the following: "[Mars] blazes forth against the dark background of space with a splendor that outshines Sirius and rivals the giant Jupiter himself." Even at closest approach the two planets are separated by a gulf of tens of millions of miles. From such a distance, Mars looks like a star, an intense yet tiny pinprick of light, never a full Moon. To appreciate the situation, think of Earth and Mars as runners on a track, with speedy Earth on the inside lane and slower Mars on the outside.  Earth is catching up to Mars from behind. Relative speed: 22,000 mph. In December, Earth overtakes Mars, still moving rapidly but never approaching the Red Planet any nearer than the gap between lanes: about 55 million miles.  Mindful that the two planets are converging, NASA chose this time to send its Phoenix Lander to Mars. Launched on Aug. 4, 2007, from Cape Canaveral, Phoenix is slated to land in late May 2008 on a Martian arctic plain where Phoenix's robotic arm will dig in the dirt hunting for, among other things, habitats for microbial life."

more images: from Peter Garbett of Sharnbrook, England; from Guenther Strauch of Borken, NRW, Germany; from Friedrich Deters of LaGrange, North Carolina.

PLANET ALIGNMENTS:

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[12-10-07 ECB] SPECIAL NOTE:

We are entering into a period of exceptional synchronicity of many orbital cycles, involving nearly all the planets and the orbital cycles of both the Earth and the Moon.  This is likely to produce a substantial rise in Solar Activity during the remainder of December through January.  It is also likely to produce a substantial rise in tectonic activity, both volcanic and seismic.  The year 2006 was a record-breaking year for significant events in both types of tectonic activities and 2007 has become a close match.  We may now see a temporary surge upwards into new levels.

December 22 is a middle focal point at which many cycles "click" synergistically.  It is of course, the Winter Solstice (shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere), but more importantly it is the approximate beginning of the moment of Perihelion, the time of the annual orbit during which the Earth is closest to the Sun.  This maximizes the Sun's influence on the Earth (especially in the Southern Hemisphere).  The Moon will be in Full Phase, in a fairly close Perigee, maximizing the "rifting" or expanding effect with a 180 degree pull of opposition to the gravity of the Sun.

At the same time, the Moon will be in Extreme Declination of about 27 Degrees in the Northern Hemisphere while the Sun will be in the lowest elevation in the Southern Hemisphere.  The total divergence is approximately 50 degrees. This suggests that the greatest torque impact on the Spinning Earth will be at a considerable angle to the Equator, most especially against  the north-south trending East Pacific Rise and the always hyperactive eastern and northern margins of the vast Australian Tectonic Plate, most notably through New Zealand, Fuji/Loyalty/Solomon Islands groups, Papua New Guinea, and the always dangerous tectonic margins alongside which sit the main Indonesian Islands.

In this vast tug of war, the Sun will be pulling the Equatorial bulge downwards and the Moon will be pulling the bulge upwards at about the same force of gravity, once every 24 hours of the Earth's Spin.  If we could hear all the earthquake signals, we would hear the Earth groaning and creaking in rising and falling patterns, like a ship tossed at sea, in response to this cosmic dance.  As the Earth spirals daily through this routine, like a ballerina  pirouetting multiple times across a long stage,  bowing first to the Sun and then to the Moon, all fault zones in the Earth will "work" and more than normal will break in greater ruptures than usual.  It is that simple

Spreading activity in the Great Rift of the Pacific should be higher than usual and the stress against the Western Pacific (Philippines, Taiwan, Japan) and Australia should thus also much higher than normal.  This is of course equally true for Central and South America.  This combination may also be favorable for greater lateral movement of the Pacific past the western coast of North America, though this is merely a speculation.  In any event, this combination is more likely to produce Great Quakes in the tropical and Pacific regions than during any other moment of 2007 and earlier years.  It will almost certainly produce a substantial increase in heat flux in the Great Rift, most especially in the East Pacific.  This heat flux likely will initiate the next round of El Nino during 2008 and noticeably accelerate Global Warming.

Overhead, the planets will play out a complex set of alignments which must be seen on the chart below for the best mental image.  Mars and Earth will align, which almost always has a major impact on the Earth's atmosphere by substantially increasing solar activity for a few weeks.  At the same time Venus aligns in a different quadrant with Saturn.  On the side of the Sun dead opposite to the Earth, in a remarkable symmetry of synergy, Mercury aligns with Jupiter and Pluto, thus creating a nearly straight line in the solar system between six bodies, with the Sun in the middle.  Mercury and Jupiter have coupled their influences quite easily during previous alignments, despite the far distance in their orbits, and have sometimes produced spectacular increases in Solar Activity.

This is probably not the Sun's season for a huge increase in Solar Activity.  But all this planetary stimulation should produce a fairly energetic response in the Sun.  Sunspots and wind streams should be pulled out of both sides of the Sun at the same time which will make for a few weeks of counts mostly above 10, with one or two or three peaks above 50.  This may be the beginning of a progressive upsurge in Solar Activity from month to month, a new cycle which scientists will number as Solar Cycle 24.

This increased solar activity will of course hit our Global Warming Syndrome Winter (in La Nina Phase which is "beating" with the North Atlantic Warm Oscillation).  Ionic power in the atmosphere will increase substantially, inducing larger flows of large air masses, especially flowing out of the polar zones over the land masses.  This will make for COLD WINTER gales in the high northern latitudes and in all mountain zones.  Continental coast zones will see a lot of stormy weather highly variable under an unstable Jet Stream.  Much snow and rain.   Latitudes below North 45 in the Northern Hemisphere will see a lot of unpredictable weather.  What would have been a La Nina winter drought period will be punctuated with sudden wet storm fronts.

[12-3-07 ECB] Welcome to Solar Minima and to what in all liklihood is our start this month in Solar Cycle 24.  This  is the point when one Sunspot Cycle ends and another begins during a month when very little sunspot activity will be recorded.  We won't know the official "point" of the transition for many more months yet, perhaps not even until near the end of 2008, but frankly it sure feels like 2007 is the transition year and the now feels like THIS IS THE NOW.

SOLAR SYSTEM FORECAST:

[11-19-07 ECB]  Sunspot and solar activity should peak generally 8 to 3 days in advance of these alignment dates but keep in mind that some times the solar peak comes in on the day or the day after the alignment. This next six body alignment creates a very complex time line of coupling and refocusing of energy patterns in the solar system.  There may be several minor blips produced by this dynamic coupling scattered over two or three weeks.

December 22 , 2007 Six Bodies In A Straight
Mars | Earth | Sun | Mercury | Jupiter | Pluto

Most important for Solar Activity is the six-way alignment in December on the Solstice.  This next chart is added because it far outclasses all else during 2007.  On about December 18/19, five planets will align in a straight line with the Sun.  Earth and Mars will align on the top of the chart, while  Mercury, Jupiter, and Pluto align on the almost exact opposite side of the Sun. Off to one side, Venus will align with Saturn.  On December 22, Earth's Moon will be Perigee at the peak of its North Node and on December 24, the Moon will be Full.  Talk about a syzygy window!!!

Almost certainly these alignments will induce Solar Activity.  These probably will mark the beginning of Solar Cycle 24. Sunspot Activity will begin to rise in brief flurries about December 10-15. 

[12-10-07] NOTE:  The flurries began early, during the first week of December, rising for several days to a Sunspot Count of 42 on December 9 with a rapidly rising Flux (which usually predicts a rise in the Sunspot Count during the following day).  It is likely from this that Sunspot Cycle 24 has begun and that the rapidly rising level of activity will create a rising daily and monthly average on which peaks in activity will occasionally rise much higher than seen during 2007.   The peaks to be seen by this weekend may be twice the count of 42 on December 9. 

Six Body Alignment

December 22, 2007 - An Heliocentric Projection from Home Planet Software

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/2007/planets/planets_equal9_12-22-07.gif

LUNAR SCHEDULE:

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

To quickly surmise the situation for the week, use these graphs.  Once you figure out how to read them, which is not difficult, you will find these more powerful than words.  Please note that you may have to click on the pictures in the browser to instruct your browser to display them in their full size.

Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
One Year Overview
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
Thirteen Year Overview Of Variations In The Perigee Cycle
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
 

[12-10-07 ECB]    We are now in the New Moon of December 9/10 while in Apogee (furthest point from the Earth).  This is likely to be a middling syzygy window but it is in the extreme South Declination, suggesting an elevated seismic tendency in the Southern Hemisphere.  In fact, the 7.9 quake south of Fiji during December 8 is most likely directly the outcome of the New Moon South Declination.  See Special Note in Planetary Alignments above for the upcoming Full Moon.

[12-3-07 ECB]  The following prediction is definitely right so far.  We have another several weeks to finish this cosmic window of elevated tectonic activity - not until the end of February can we conclude that averages in seismic activity are likely to decline.  STANDING PREDICTION FROM EARLIER THIS YEAR:  Beware, however, from about October 11 through to the Perihelion in early January.  The cycles are phasing up together, Perigee and Full Moon tightly linked in November, with the New Moon and Extreme Declination tightly linked in early December.   Thus, heightened danger will begin to mount in September and continue through to December of this year, with the greatest danger likely during the syzygy windows in October -December.

 Lunar Schedule For 2007
computed from Home Planet Software (op. cit.)

ALL TIMES AND DATES ARE UTC (Greenwich)

+ or - = synchronicity within 48 hours with Full or New Moon

Integrated Lunar Schedule On Time Dimension

All dates and times are UTC

Apparent Geocentric Positions Of The Moon
from the U.S. Naval Observatory.

In this schedule above, you can see the Perigee/Apogee cycle in the right hand column and in the next set of numbers to the left you can see Declination.  Or just learn to read the charts below, which are a lot more fun.  The Giant Plot allows you to see the exact dates (UTC). 

Or use these graphs which are drawn by MWM from the table data to find PERIGEE, DECLINATION, AND PHASE (NEW OR FULL MOON)..

Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day
 

One Year Overview
 

Thirteen Year Overview Of Variations In The Perigee Cycle
 

Declination (Dragon Cycle) and Distance (Perigee Cycle) define the strongest and most extreme moments of Lunar influence on the Earth. Distances of less than 365,000 KM indicate Perigees with the Lunar gravity field considerably stronger than average.  Declinations of 27 or 28 indicate an extreme position of the Moon over the Northern (+) or Southern Hemisphere (-). A high declination with a low distance for Perigee exerts significantly greater torque on the Earth in zones which do not usually receive so much. The "timing" of these "moments" creates "windows" of exceptional syzygy.  These relationships are best viewed in graph form.

True Equator and Equinox of Date For 2007
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_geocentric.pl

Date        Time       RightAscen. Declination   Distance
(UT1)
            h m s h m s ' "                      kilometers
2007 Nov 01 00:00:00.0 8 0 10.621 + 23 44 16.18 379363.411
2007 Nov 02 00:00:00.0 8 54 20.154 + 19 37 6.06 385251.112
2007 Nov 03 00:00:00.0 9 44 3.568 + 14 42 6.81 390661.604
2007 Nov 04 00:00:00.0 10 30 18.906 + 9 17 58.35 395371.348
2007 Nov 05 00:00:00.0 11 14 14.232 + 3 39 23.86 399259.688
2007 Nov 06 00:00:00.0 11 56 56.945 - 2 1 41.10 402289.639
2007 Nov 07 00:00:00.0 12 39 29.802 - 7 34 47.62 404482.824
2007 Nov 08 00:00:00.0 13 22 49.482 - 12 49 44.77 405892.951
2007 Nov 09 00:00:00.0 14 7 44.787 - 17 35 51.84 406581.256
2007 Nov 10 00:00:00.0 14 54 52.733 - 21 41 37.20 406596.698
2007 Nov 11 00:00:00.0 15 44 31.968 - 24 54 52.48 405963.107
2007 Nov 12 00:00:00.0 16 36 35.225 - 27 3 50.82 404674.795
2007 Nov 13 00:00:00.0 17 30 25.531 - 27 58 46.42 402701.204
2007 Nov 14 00:00:00.0 18 25 2.226 - 27 33 46.46 400000.155
2007 Nov 15 00:00:00.0 19 19 18.210 - 25 48 3.63 396538.239
2007 Nov 16 00:00:00.0 20 12 21.283 - 22 45 50.64 392316.040
2007 Nov 17 00:00:00.0 21 3 48.778 - 18 35 8.26 387395.059
2007 Nov 18 00:00:00.0 21 53 50.736 - 13 26 20.80 381922.367
2007 Nov 19 00:00:00.0 22 43 4.914 - 7 31 31.17 376147.824
2007 Nov 20 00:00:00.0 23 32 29.394 - 1 4 36.94 370427.396
2007 Nov 21 00:00:00.0 0 23 15.697 + 5 37 21.30 365205.379
2007 Nov 22 00:00:00.0 1 16 41.150 + 12 12 50.01 360969.981
2007 Nov 23 00:00:00.0 2 13 55.629 + 18 14 46.66 358182.799
2007 Nov 24 00:00:00.0 3 15 36.729 + 23 11 45.15 357193.699
2007 Nov 25 00:00:00.0 4 21 14.791 + 26 32 43.33 358164.267
2007 Nov 26 00:00:00.0 5 28 51.074 + 27 55 37.90 361026.717
2007 Nov 27 00:00:00.0 6 35 26.431 + 27 15 38.97 365494.423
2007 Nov 28 00:00:00.0 7 38 18.024 + 24 46 26.15 371119.520
2007 Nov 29 00:00:00.0 8 36 1.650 + 20 53 2.53 377375.506
2007 Nov 30 00:00:00.0 9 28 36.588 + 16 2 31.10 383738.737
2007 Dec 01 00:00:00.0 10 16 54.226 + 10 38 2.99 389750.835
2007 Dec 02 00:00:00.0 11 2 6.661 + 4 57 25.75 395055.754
2007 Dec 03 00:00:00.0 11 45 28.747 - 0 46 1.00 399413.819
2007 Dec 04 00:00:00.0 12 28 10.965 - 6 21 43.79 402698.540
2007 Dec 05 00:00:00.0 13 11 17.325 - 11 40 16.96 404882.121
2007 Dec 06 00:00:00.0 13 55 44.083 - 16 32 4.90 406014.283
2007 Dec 07 00:00:00.0 14 42 16.614 - 20 46 32.66 406197.722
2007 Dec 08 00:00:00.0 15 31 23.144 - 24 11 55.07 405562.764
2007 Dec 09 00:00:00.0 16 23 6.077 - 26 35 58.33 404243.561
2007 Dec 10 00:00:00.0 17 16 55.172 - 27 47 41.10 402358.235
2007 Dec 11 00:00:00.0 18 11 49.832 - 27 39 33.69 399995.401
2007 Dec 12 00:00:00.0 19 6 34.968 - 26 9 35.46 397209.155
2007 Dec 13 00:00:00.0 20 0 5.111 - 23 21 45.48 394023.742
2007 Dec 14 00:00:00.0 20 51 43.917 - 19 24 52.78 390447.769
2007 Dec 15 00:00:00.0 21 41 30.640 - 14 30 38.64 386496.251
2007 Dec 16 00:00:00.0 22 29 55.584 - 8 52 0.47 382217.114
2007 Dec 17 00:00:00.0 23 17 51.631 - 2 42 36.16 377717.376
2007 Dec 18 00:00:00.0 0 6 26.718 + 3 42 47.66 373182.936
2007 Dec 19 00:00:00.0 0 56 57.685 + 10 7 1.03 368885.148
2007 Dec 20 00:00:00.0 1 50 42.149 + 16 9 0.49 365167.564
2007 Dec 21 00:00:00.0 2 48 42.466 + 21 22 59.31 362408.739
2007 Dec 22 00:00:00.0 3 51 16.979 + 25 19 52.69 360962.938
2007 Dec 23 00:00:00.0 4 57 26.094 + 27 32 40.22 361089.597
2007 Dec 24 00:00:00.0 6 4 44.342 + 27 45 12.61 362890.752
2007 Dec 25 00:00:00.0 7 10 9.078 + 25 59 11.32 366277.308
2007 Dec 26 00:00:00.0 8 11 19.872 + 22 33 11.87 370976.263
2007 Dec 27 00:00:00.0 9 7 22.432 + 17 54 33.65 376575.609
2007 Dec 28 00:00:00.0 9 58 36.993 + 12 30 37.06 382590.792
2007 Dec 29 00:00:00.0 10 46 4.232 + 6 44 0.59 388533.081
2007 Dec 30 00:00:00.0 11 30 58.260 + 0 51 50.61 393965.422
2007 Dec 31 00:00:00.0 12 14 32.995 - 4 53 8.53 398539.643

ASTEROID DATA QUOTED DIRECTLY FROM NASA 

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.  See http://www.spaceweather.com/

On December 10,  2007 there were 911 potentially hazardous asteroids

Upcoming 2007 Earth-asteroid encounters:

Dec-Jan Earth-asteroid encounters:

Asteroid	Date(UT)	Miss Distance	Mag.	Size
2007 XZ9	Dec. 1	8.1 LD	18	45 m
2007 VD184	Dec. 9	7.8 LD	18	95 m
3200 Phaethon	Dec. 10	47 LD	14	5 km
2007 TU24	Jan. 29	1.4 LD	19	405 m

Notes: LD is a "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.

EARTH POLAR MOTION: Spin Axis, Magnetic Poles

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

[12-10-07 ECB]  POLAR MOTION:  About the same as previous weeks.  The Spiral Track of Earth's Wobble continues to expand outward in a stable pattern. The Spin Axis is currently located right of Greenwich Meridian and is moving past central Siberia to the Far East.. The expansion of the spiral appears truncated, suggesting that there has been a significant displacement of the center of the spirals (average location of the Spin Axis).  It so, the displacement may be approximately down Longitudes West 40-80. (guestimated by dead reckoning, not by mathematics of polar coordinates).  Truncated:  skewed to the left, not opening up more fully to the right in a more balanced pure spiral form.

[11-12-07 ECB] WOBBLETRACKER SOFTWARE IMPROVED.  Davis Chapman graciously upgraded the WobbleTracker Software in a way which makes it easier to use and more analytically powerful for plotting exact date sequences.  Anyone who has previously purchased WobbleTracker is eligible for an upgrade which I will email as a zip file.

Mouse arrow cursor points toward the latest location of Spin Axis

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/2007/wobble/wobbletrac_12-3-2007.gif

Image is from WobbleTracker software, drawn by MWM

Graph Scale is set to 1.0 arcseconds, Grid Size = 0.05 arcseconds
Time Domain as shown in upper right hand corner.
All movement is counter-clockwise.
 

This chart shows the location of the North Spin Axis relative to the “map coordinates” which were established at the end of the 19^th century.  A drift of over 50 feet since 1900 in the circular track of Chandler’s Wobble is shown in this chart.  This drift is the primary cause of the acceleration in Earth’s tectonic activity. In order to “parallel” the way in which geophysicists create and record the Earth’s polar location geo-reference system, this graph shows the negative numbers opposite to the manner which they are typically drawn in school books.  –X is shown on the top half, and this corresponds to the direction of the Pacific Hemisphere.  –Y is shown on the right side and this corresponds to the Eurasian Land Mass.  X= Longitude 0, which is the Greenwich Meridian which bisects through England; +Y= Longitude West 90,  which bisects through the Great Lakes (North America).

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans):  Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006.  Incorporated also is color coding for the Wobble X MAX (largest spiral in the Wobble every seven years as measured on its X Axis), the Wobble X MIN (smallest spiral in the Wobble every seven years) and the years of the El Nino.  The correlation in this stunning chart is much clearer than before, during the past 106 years, with only two exceptions, an El Nino does not occur during either an X MAX or an X MIN phase.  It typically occurs on the transitions between the two phases.  On the basis of the correlations, I am predicting that the DOA El Nino of 2006/07 was not a peak of El Nino oscillation year.  Because the wobble is now leaving its MIN PHASE, or did so in the main during 2006, I predict that a much stronger El Nino will occur in 2007/08.  Or if not, it will occur 2008 and quickly abort in 2009, but almost certainly it will not appear in the next X MAX, which is due 2009/2010. After the current wobble cycle matures during the next six months, I will tighten this prediction.

[3-5-07 ECB]  NEW FINDINGS ABOUT POLAR MOTION & THE WOBBLE:

The anomaly of 2006, during which the Spin Axis "hung" for nearly two months in one place, and then re-commenced its wobble spiral in a nearly perfect "cartoid" (see Wikipedia) prompted me to look for other similar anomalies between 1890-2006.  (Cartoids are termination points of an inward spiral curve from which a new spiral begins to curve outward, the moment of the yin becoming yang).   During the course of this search, I discovered to my horror that all of the IERS databases have been updated, making all of my graphs theoretically out-dated.  So...after spending a month and a half restructuring my databases and rebuilding all my graphs, plus a lot of new ones, I have come to a new level of understanding about the Spin Axis and its history, all of which most remarkably corroborate Cayce's predictions and add profundity of understanding about the coming avalanche of the crust.  I found more cartoids in various MIN phases of the wobble, just enough to establish a 99 year base line of movement from cartoid moment to moment (the majority of the "moments" are indistinguishable).  I found that the average rate of drift for the century using only the cartoid points to define the location of the Spin Axis is nearly a dead letter match for the average drift computed by mathematician Joachim Hopfner (google him).  (I calculate about 12.5 centimeters per year).  I also found, which Hopfner's averages do not reveal, a variable rate of drift which corresponds very well with Cayce's earth changes dates.  All of that was stunning enough, but even more stunning was the realization that these cartoid moments occur during the early months of the year, typically January through March.  Since these wobble moments are ALMOST ALWAYS during VERY SMALL MIN phases, during which the Earth has not wobbled much for many weeks, hence the Spin Axis has not shifted hardly at all for a significant spell, it finally struck me that at these "cartoid moments" we find the Earth in a state of nearly perfect balance of all vectors.  Literally the wobble ceases at these moments but it is slowly regenerated during the year and then is "hit" by Perihelion gravity interference.  This drag of Solar gravity on the Southern Hemisphere (which is the heaviest side of the Earth) induces a greater swing or spiral motion in the wobble and continues to deepen the spiral for at least two or three annual Perihelion moments.  BUT, whenever the Spiral Swing  reaches maximum on the X Axis (the Atlantic Quadrant of the Earth) AFTER THE SUMMER SOLSTICE, the Sun's gravity tug falls out of phase with the 14 month long wobble (the Southern Hemisphere) and the wobble begins to decline in size towards the next MIN. (The Sun creates, the Sun destroys).  The "cartoid moments" are the points when the Earth recovers its balance until the gravity vectors line up again to pull the Earth's Spin into another wobble.  This appears to be about every two to three wobble cycles (many of which are seven years long, some a little less).  This can all be seen clear as a bell in the giant scrolling charts I have constructed (and will share in a few weeks).  The complete equation of the wobble is more complex, of course, it is essentially a beat function between orbital gravity vectors, the annual precession of the heavy side of the Earth towards Perihelion, the Moon's adding and subtracting, and the "plastic" reactions of components of the Earth's crust.  BUT, I part company here with the weather-related geophysicists.  It  can be seen without doubt in properly constructed graphs that solar/lunar influence is about 90% of the wobble.  Some scientists are currently maintaining that Earth's fluids are the main source of the wobble.  Sorry, not to be, it is the heavy Southern Hemisphere and the Sun's gravity, the fluids affect less than 10%.

The graphs for all this will be added into a "Storyboard" about the wobble. This is coming within a couple of weeks to registered subscribers with passwords.  The generalizations which are constructed in this storyboard will become the basis on which I both finish the verification of Cayce's predictions and construct a new scenario of a likely way in which the crust will avalanche and can be foreseen.   We probably will not be able to predict the exact year, wobble cycle, and date, but we will see what's coming well in advance.  I am completely certain now that it will occur during a Wobble MAX phase during the first half of the year, in a wobble cycle which has "lost its bearings" by becoming far too large. 

WORLD & REGIONAL WEATHER: Storm Fronts, Hurricanes, El Nino & La Nina, Drought & Fire, Global Warming

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LINKS  |  LATEST

GLOBAL WARMING SYNDROME:  Far more probable than not, the first half of 2007 has brought a serious surge of heat through the Great Rifts in the bottom of the oceans.   It is likely that this is still continuing and it may continue throughout the year.  The telling sign is the spurt of Great Rift quakes which come and go in waves.  These all indicate movements which marine geologists are nearly certain indicate extensive magma dikes and lava flows in or very close to the Great Rift Valleys.  This activity likely will feed a new round of heat into the oceanic climate system during the next 36 months and thus over-all Global Warming will continue to surge upwards. 

The increased heat energy in the climate system along the broad middle of the Earth ( from the tropics which supplies the juice which powers the air conditioner of your weather) is causing the flow of air more rapidly in greater volumes into the north and south out of the Equatorial zone.  Warm air travels further to the North and pushes increased cold air to flow out of the polar zones (your cooling coils).  The more Global Warming, the more intense and stormy will be both Winter and Summer, the Winter cooler, the Summer hotter, with more power in all storms.  The primary consistent barometer of all of this:  the melting of the Arctic Ice.

http://www.michaelmandeville.com/earthchanges/bulletin/sst/gsstanim_12-10-07.gif

The key to dynamic change is the bottom graph which displays the "out of average" readings.  This allows us to quickly spot the extremes which are forming up in the various oceanic climate regimes.  It is a lot cheaper and easier than using supercomputers.

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac.  Go here to get updated on the likely rain and temperature forecast.  This one currently on the web is essentially based on a La Nina forecast. 

NOAA HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES: the succinct storm watch 48 hour  advance advisory: The charts and data are continuously updated so regardless of the date on which you access these charts, you will get the latest chart for the current date.

[12-10-07 ECB] All in all, most likely a very stormy wet, windy, cold, snowy Solstice - Perihelion (Christmas) across vast sections of the Northern Hemisphere in the higher latitudes (primarily Lat. 45+) and major mountainous zones. This December/January is not a good time to travel in the Northern Hemisphere. Expect the Winter extremes to deepen greatly after about December 15.

[12-3-07 ECB]  With the exception of the incredible pounding of the Pacific Northwest coastal zone of North America, there are no significant major marine storm fronts in most of the world.  For the most part, weather appears to be in typical middling ranges in the usual places. Both the PSW and the PNW are in typical La Nina weather regimes.  Mostly dry, warm during the day but very cool at night, in the PSW.  Very wet and stormy in the PNW.  This regime will continue through December and into January but La Nina is now waning and may disappear entirely during the next 40-60 days.  If so, it is highly likely that the next El Nino will appear fairly early during 2008. Odds are, by the wobble cycle correlation with El Nino, that 2008 is the year for a major El Nino.

[11-12-07 ECB]  Hurricane Season Died!  Odds of more hurricanes are now very small, as can be easily seen on the above chart.  There are no reports of hurricanes or cyclones anywhere.  However, there are  major storm fronts around the world bearing lots of rain.

 

VERDICT IS IN:  I think that we are we seeing that it is hard to get up a decent hurricane without some sunspot stimulation. With the virtual death of the hurricane season at more or less Solar Minima this past 60 days, I think we have the verdict now in.  This is a very interesting development. Since little to no intensification of storm fronts is likely from solar influence during the next few weeks, the extreme storm season of 2007 is now passe - - - but major storms which produce floods are always possible.  Since these storms now have more energy than ever before because of Global Warming, more extremes in flooding from time to time is probable in every season.

 

NOAA EAST PACIFIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

NOAA WEST ATLANTIC  Latest Facts & Forecast Updated every 12 hours

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

 

 [12-3-07] North American weather is streaming aggressively in through the Gulf of Alaska and the PNW Coast between Oregon and Anchorage.  La Nina is definitely sliding out of its extreme.  But the North Atlantic Oscillation is persisting strongly and will obviously continue to greatly influence the weather patterns of early Winter throughout Western Europe and even deep into Russia. Wet and cold.  The North Pacific Gyre Hotspot has largely diffused, thus the weather pattern for Winter 2008 will likely be classical La Nina Syndrome, but weather averages will be pushed slightly to the higher latitudes to reflect the Global Warming effect.

THIS LA NINA MAY BE BECOMING A RECORD-MAKER FOR ITS DURATION.  IT IS RELATIVELY MILD, BUT IT IS LONG AND STABLE AND NOW VERY DRY FOR THE PSW..

[11-19-07 ECB] In the North Atlantic, the warm phase of  the N.A. Oscillation has prevailed and IS STRONGER THAN EVER.  It is persisting well into the Winter and will produce a wetter and warmer winter in Europe, with much greater snow fall in all of Europe.

[10-1-07 ECB] PREDICTION FOR THE NEXT EL NINO:  It will onset quickly directly out of the La Nina and it will be one of the strongest of record.  It also probably will be a longer than normal El Nino. This is based purely on the higher than ever tempo of earthquake and volcanic activity around the world during 2006 and 2007, plus the greater number of major quakes (6+) in the Great Rift this year. The increased heat flux from the East Pacific Rift will eventually make its way to the surface and produce the typical El Nino hot Equator.

The Ocean Climate Regimes (relative to averages)

La Nina on the Pacific Equator - PERSISTENT  - now DECLINING WHILE STILL MILD. (Guestimated from eyeball dead-reckoning, not from number calculations).

Mid Pacific California Coast - Fairly normal through a broad area

North Pacific - Mid Ocean Gyre:  STILL DIFFUSING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

North Atlantic:  warmer than normal but the above normal heat is dissipating rapidly; conditions may be near Global Warming normal in January.

[11-19-07]   Most fortunately, the Jet Stream is more normal than it looked to be some two weeks ago.  The temperature differentials in the North Pacific are disappearing slowly, allowing a more "typical" fall and winter weather regime to emerge on the West Coast.  The Eastern Seaboard, however, will tend to have more cold artic air drawn down through it, heading out towards the Mid-Atlantic to balance out the warmer than normal conditions of the North Atlantic Oscillation.  In general, more precipitation in the eastern and northern portions of North America, but definite drought conditions in the western and southerly portions of North America.   Take at look at the bottom panel on the chart below.  Current conditions mirror this chart fairly well.  The red line (Jet Stream) is pushing the current storm fronts through mid North America (PNW, Oregon-BC) quite well

---

NEW CHART RELEASE WHICH PROVES THAT POLAR MOTION PHASES REGULATE EL NINO (and probably the other climate oscillations in the Northern Atlantic and the Indian Oceans):  Click Here! Composed fresh for the revised edition of the Return of the Phoenix, a new expanded chart shows the track of Earth's Wobble up and down the Greenwich Meridian (called the X Axis of polar motion by geophysicists) for the period 1890-2006.  Incorporated also is color coding for the Wobble X MAX (largest spiral in the Wobble every seven years as measured on its X Axis), the Wobble X MIN (smallest spiral in the Wobble every seven years) and the years of the El Nino.  The correlation in this stunning chart is much clearer than before, during the past 106 years, with only two exceptions, an El Nino does not occur during either an X MAX or an X MIN phase.  It typically occurs on the transitions between the two phases.  On the basis of the correlations, I am predicting that the DOA El Nino of 2006/07 was not a peak of El Nino oscillation year.  Because the wobble is now leaving its MIN PHASE, or did so in the main during 2006, I predict that a much stronger El Nino will occur in 2007/08.  Or if not, it will occur 2008 and quickly abort in 2009, but almost certainly it will not appear in the next X MAX, which is due 2009/2010. After the current wobble cycle matures during the next six months, I will tighten this prediction.

 

Temperatures shown in degrees Celsius, bottom scale shows seasonal “variance” by the amount in Celsius.

 

NOAA EXPLANATION:  Weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (top, °C) and anomalies (bottom, °C) for the past twelve weeks.  SST analysis is the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis, while anomalies are departures from the adjusted OI climatology (Reynolds and Smith 1995, J. Climate, 8, 1571-1583).  MWM:  Otherwise stated, the top graph represents a statistical profile of what probably should be seen while the bottom graph shows the relative amount of variation. 

 

HOW THE AIR CIRCULATION WORKS OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING EXTREME YEARS OF EL NINO AND LA NINA:  In the chart below, the indicated air flows persist for much of the year, not just the Winter months.  The main change during the year is that the patterns migrates towards the North with the season changes. The bottom pix neatly describes our weather this past three months of early 2007.  This pattern could continue to dominate next Fall and into the Winter of 2008/

 

 

Image source:  NOAA,  Home Page For El Nino La Nina

 

 

LINKS TO BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON EL NINO LA NINA:

START HERE FOR ALL THINGS PACIFIC CLIMATE AND GLOBAL WARMING

An excellent orientation for kids of all ages: http://library.thinkquest.org/20901/overview_1.htm

Covers in simple English how scientists are attempting to analyze El Nino, model it into a climate theory, and from that make predictions.

After reading this meta overview, it is easy to immediately spot the two main conceptual blind spots of the weathermen.  The first is that they are completely unfamiliar with the fact that the Earth is spinning to the East, bunching up the crust and fluids of the Earth against the eastern “windward” edges of the continents. Thus they mistake why the water and atmospheric circulation works as it does.  They “see” it as “pressure differentials” created by the “equatorial climate”.  These pressures are likely secondary effects produced indirectly by the rotating mass(es) of the Earth, not primary causes. The second mistake is that their model simply lacks an elementary driver to make it work.  Energy must come into the system to produce El Nino.  To attribute such a source, they mystically bow and scrape to Ozian “feedbacks” just behind the veils of perception.  They are totally oblivious to the driver - the “bunsen burner” at the bottom of the ocean.

The La Nina Home Page - What Is La Nina – A NOAA compendium of  web pages on La Nina & El Nino

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html

Current But Static SST Charts & Predictions:
predictions on Nina, Nino, SO, & the Climate For Months Ahead

 Home Page For El Nino La Nina

FAQS on Nino Nina – excellent range of questions and answers and links to powerful sources and images of information.

 National Weather Service -Climate Prediction Center

Monitoring & Data Index – this is a very extensive list of many different kinds of data series

 PRIMARY DATA SERIES USED BY MWM IN VORTEX CHARTS & DISCUSSIONS:

 ENSO Impacts The Main Long Range Climate Data Series Related To ENSO

Quarterly Data 1950-2006

Year Data 1877-2006

Comparison Charts Of Two Most Powerful La Nina's

How they come on, develop, and disappear.

THIS BELOW  IS A VALUABLE RESOURCE AND I WILL BE WORKING THESE GRAPHS INTO THE EC BULLETINS SOMEHOW.

Seasonal Color Map Graphs - Predict Rain and Temperatures For North America For The Year Ahead – Science Is Finally Catching Up With Farmer’s Almanac

NOAA 3/4/2007 Forecast

A PP Frame:  Most statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate SST anomalies will decrease during the next 2-3 months, with ENSO-neutral conditions lasting through the northern Spring (March-May 2007).

Following PP Frame:  The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) indicates a rapid transition from neutral to La Niña conditions during the next 2-3 months.

Say what?  Say what a forecast.  All things for all folks.  The real news:   LA NINA is already here affecting the weather and this pattern will increase through to the Summer

THE BING0! Frequency Chart Of Top Ten Most Extreme El Nino Events:

This is an amazing chart for Phoenix readers!!!!

It blows me away.  I just discovered it after weeks of browsing through the Iway underbellies of NOAA and NASA and the like.

It sustains and proves through its very close parallelism the claim that the Earth Changes are new (for this millennium), that they began in the 1930's, as suggested by Cayce, and commenced the noticeable trend line of change in 1958, as suggested by Cayce and as proven by trend lines of ocean warming, earthquake activity, volcanism, and drift in the wobble.

The El Nino Bingo Chart:  Frequency Of Extreme Events Began Accelerating In 1960

By the unsung gnomes of NOAA
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/1998/enso/10elnino.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/1998/enso/ensotr2.gif

Subscribers with access to the Nine Trends Chart will notice that the parallelism between the curves in this chart match the curves of geophysical trends in the Nine Trends chart, esp. the OCEAN WARMING curve and world volcanism.

Play it again one more time, Sam, I need a good belly-aching laugh:

CARBON DIOXIDE causes Global Warming.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

GEOTECTONIC ACTIVITY: Volcanoes, Shape Shifting, Earthquakes

ALMANAC  |  BACKGROUND  |  EARTHMONITOR LNKS  |  LATEST

Al, you there?  Here is the primary signal of the tectonic motion which is creating Global Warming.

EARTHQUAKE TRENDS & THE CHANGE IN THE EARTH

[10-9-2007] I downloaded the ANSS catalog and updated my World 4+ Quake Model and charts off line.  I was correct below in assuming that the average quake count would climb during 2007 to near 40.  The average as of October 1 is a little higher than shown in this chart below.  I will finally update this posting and the chart below in about February 2008.

[9-17-2007]  This chart was cut off at May 20, 2007.  I think the daily average for 2007 has increased since then, partly as a result of all the activity in the Western Pacific. So I suspect that the drop in the trend shown in the chart will be overcome by a higher average.

This first chart was developed for the Return of the Phoenix, Book Three.  The chart demonstrates that the Change In the Earth has accelerated about threefold since 1973.  This is a well qualified and objectively real trend.  The daily average frequency for 2007 is now running at about 35 per day for quakes 4+.  Since the online quake catalogs seldom show even half that many for each of the preceding seven days, it is also perfectly obvious that the online catalogs DO NOT PROVIDE ON THE FLY AN OBJECTIVE VIEW OF THE BEHAVIOR OF THE WHOLE EARTH.  It takes the catalog builders about 60 days to finalize the latest entries.  In other words, they are are bout two months behind.  What we get from the online services in the "current term" is a source of bulletins which provide information on the largest quakes or those closest to civilized areas.

Here is the signal which reveals the driving "wedge" where the "shaping of the Earth" begins to produce the "Change in the Earth".  Here is a roughly threefold acceleration in tectonic motion in the course of 23 years, mainly in the Great Rift which runs through the North Atlantic.  The greatest push is against Eurasia, which is subducting Japan and the Western Pacific at an accelerating pace.  Thus both zones now have geometric growth rates which will double their average seismic activity during the next 15 years while the North Atlantic continues to warm itself and the Arctic to produce a growing acceleration of Global Warming.  OBSERVE THE CLEAR RELATIONSHIP IN FREQUENCY AND PHASING WITH THE SIZE OF EARTH'S WOBBLE (TERMED HEREIN THE X MAX) AS MEASURED EACH YEAR ON THE X AXIS (very nearly the Greenwich Meridian).  Pss.  Pass this along.  I do not think anyone in the earth sciences other than you or I are aware of this fundamental geophysical dynamic.

EARTHQUAKES CURRENT:

[12-10-07 ECB]   Earthquake activity Class 4+ is about average for average, but somewhat below average for a New Moon Syzygy.  This perhaps reflects the Full Moon at its furthest distance (Apogee) from the Earth.   The biggest quake was a 7.9  in Indonesia (with virtually no aftershocks).  Currently quake activity is about evenly distributed between the western and eastern sides of Pacific with many shape-shifter quakes in the Great Rift displayed for the past two weeks of activity.

CLICK ON IMAGES FOR EXPANDED VIEW; red indicates quakes 4+ during the previous 24 hours, orange during previous day, yellow during the previous two weeks, violet during the past 15 years

SEISMIC MONITOR BY IRIS
 http://www.michaelmandeville.com/ecbulletin/2006/quakes/worldquakes_IRIS_12-10-07.gif

Best to go here below and click for the latest dynamic page with explanations of the symbols and large displays of regions of the Earth (these are "at the moment" charts):  http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

CONCERNING DATABASE FILES OF QUAKE CATALOGS:
The EC Bulletins is now using  ONLY THE "ANSS COMPOSITE QUAKE CATALOG" for stats - The ANSS is the evolved transformation of the CSSC system based at Berkeley California where the geophysicists have been collecting data since the beginning of the seismograph technology.  The USGS databases are derived from the ANSS catalogs and the IRIS group above is attempting to provide a scientific display network for access to current information about current earthquakes (for the last 30 days).

SHAPESHIFTING:  ACTIVITY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN VERY HIGH

Shape-shifter quakes indicate the spreading of the Rift Valley, the creation of new crust through magma dikes which fills in the cracks of the Great Rift, and hence the inevitable forcing of the Earth’s crust to change its shape to adjust for the new crust.  Most subduction zone quakes (such as in the Pacific Rim of Fire) probably occur as a consequence of the shape-shifting of the Earth. The outlines of the tectonic plates and the Great Rift can be be seen in the violet color in this chart above.  For a chart of Earth’s Tectonic Plates, go to: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/html/plates.html

M 5+ earthquakes, past 7 days RSS 2.0 CAP
The USGS RSS Feed, which is constantly changing its content, can be accessed at:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/eqs7day-M5.xml

Other Datafeeds On Quakes:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/catalogs/

TECTONIC MOTION QUAKE FORECAST:
Forecasts are based on Syzygy Windows which can be seen in these charts:
(you may have to click on the images to tell your browser to expand the images to their full size).

Giant Plot For Easy Viewing Day By Day
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
One Year Overview
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
Thirteen Year Overview Of Variations In The Perigee Cycle
(note:  South Declination Is On The Top Side Of The Graph)
 

[12-10-07 ECB]    Consider this coming Perigee Full Moon In Extreme Northern Declination Syzygy Window to be focused from December 18 through to 25 with all extremes in play.  This Full Moon Syzygy at Perigee in the North Node could produce some of the most extreme quake activity of 2007. 

This advisory should be considered in the context of the past few years of major quake activity around the Earth.  All the major tectonic  zones around the planet, including the Aleutians and Alaska Great Peninsula, have demonstrated a consistent upward trend in frequency of quakes 4+.  North America, however, has remained "locked" at lower levels of activity than during the 1990's.  This may mean that stress is building in North America as it compresses against the Pacific bottom plates.  Many lines of evidence suggest that this stress build-up is in fact occurring at certain points on the West Coast of North America.  If so, it may finally release catastrophically in a manner similar to the recent release of tectonic plate strain which is still shaking a long section of the Andes Mountains from Columbia to Chile.

This logic should also be evaluated against the highly unusual number of expansion rift quakes 4+ in the Atlantic and the East Pacific Rise during the first half of 2007.  The Earth is most likely "shape-shifting" at an accelerated rate in response to these expansion thrusts out of the Atlantic and Pacific.  This may be the driving force for the current round of Andes quakes and the source of the stress which may potentially produce another round of major quakes in the Northern Hemisphere during the next several days.

Occasionally the chart information is supplemented with data from Earth Sensitives, who include some humans and animals. For Earth Sensitive information, go to PamWiseman.com  For other Syzygy-type forecasts and a portal to other valuable approaches, see Syzygyjob.com

Last Seven Days - for earthquakes worldwide magnitude 4.0 plus and U.S. territorial magnitude 2.5 plus; for source list see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

VOLCANISM:

Krakatau In Vigorous Eruption November, 2007
(also popularly known as Krakatoa)

 12-10-07 ECB] The Volcano Season of 2008 definitely began with the last Full Moon Perigee.  The surge was small during the prior week (before Dec. 3) but this past week has raised all count lists, bringing the Active List to 30, up two during the past two weeks.  Lava seems to be flowing more sedately, few no reports are in, but more ash emissions and explosions are being reported. Kilauea (see pix on the left) is apparently still flowing but the very bad weather has made visibility difficult, as it has with many other volcanoes on Kamchatka, Soufierre Hills, etc. Erebus, Stromboli, Yasur, and Arenal continue their long ever-lasting eruptions alongside Kilauea  (These typically produce lava lakes, lava fountains, and strombolian explosions except that Kilauea's eruption mainly produces long lava flows into the Pacific Ocean). There were few updates this week on most of the Indonesian volcanoes but some apparently are still producing steam and minor ash in small episodes. Etna is still apparently silent again, but Popo and Colima are clearly awakening with greater ash emissions on a daily basis. 

THIS LOOKS RIGHT ON THIS WEEK:  Revised New Forecast For Late 2007:  Given the high levels of quakes in the Great Rift, which signal that shape-shifting in the Earth was at unusually high levels this year, volcanic activity did not drop much this fall. Expect another resurgence just after the coming Full Moon.

BAROMETER ERUPTERS:
About 20 to 30 volcanoes each year are very nearly in a continuous state of eruption.  The active volcanoes which are continuously erupting change their names only very slowly.  This means there is some turnover in the list, but it is generally at a low rate.  I have not computed it for yearly averages but it is likely in the range of about 15%.  

Most Active Zones:

Australian Tectonic Plate (northern edge)

Hawaii

Italy  - another vigorous round began April 30

Japan - Kamchatka Peninsula & Northern Arc of Rim of Fire (Aleutians-Alaska)

Western Americas - Mexico to Peru
 

Most Active Volcanoes:

Continuous Erupters:  activity continues in all

Kilauea, Hawaii: long lava flows into the Pacific Ocean - slowing now

Erebus, Ross Bay, Antarctica: lava lake, strombolian explosions

Stromboli, north of Etna: lava fountains, strombolian explosions

Yasur (Lighthouse of the Pacific, Vanuatu Island: lava lake, fountains, strombolian explosions

Arenal, Costa Rica: lava fountains and strombolian explosions
 

Nearly Continuous Erupter:

Etna, Sicily:  sleeping at the moment

A few on the Carib Plate are upsurging.

 

SUMMARY DATA FROM THE INTERNATIONAL VOLCANO RESEARCH CENTER: 

General Note:   INTLVRC reached a 100% rate of accuracy in predicting eruptions, the first time in their history since 1989.  They also documented 69 eruptions during 2005 and 2006, which most likely defines a peak plateau.  I expect to see even higher in 2007 (based on Wobble parallels) and then another plateauing for a couple years.  So far, the year is beginning with higher than normal numbers for "alert list" volcanoes.  The list has generally begun the year in the range of 60 but it began the year at 71, a record, and is already at 73 just eight days into the year.  Some big events may be cookin'.

Conclusions Independently Reached From Data At The International Volcano Research Center (INTLVRC)

http://www.intlvrc.org/

In early January the INTLVRC resets their counts.  They carried forward into 2007 16 volcanoes on the active list .  These are the volcanoes  which more or less are continuously erupting. 

[12-10-07]   Alert List = 63 (up two from last week)

[12-10-07]   Restless List = 4 (up one from last week)

[12-10-07]   Active List = 30 (up one from last week)

PREDICTING ERUPTIONS:

Side Note on INTLVRC's eruption prediction program.  They had a 100% rate of accuracy last year (2006) but they have already failed by one so far this year.   The volcano Huila in Columbia was NOT successfully forecasted by SWVRC's programme ERUPTION Pro 10.6 to erupt in 2007 as it had only a 18.51% probability of an event.

[9-10-07 ECB]  Below are some report summaries and links as prepared by John Seach at http://www.volcanolive.com/volcanolive.html

Summary of Yellowstone Uplift

From the INTLVRC: http://www.intlvrc.org/restless.htm

As of the 9th of November, the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), reported that the November 9, 2007 issue of Science Magazine features an article, Accelerated uplift and magmatic intrusion of the Yellowstone Caldera, 2004 to 2006, by YVO scientists from the University of Utah and USGS. The lead author, Wu-Lung Chang is a Post-doctoral associate with Dr. Robert B. Smith, YVO Coordinating Scientist at the University of Utah. Chang specialises in use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure very small movements of the Earth's crust. Using GPS and another satellite-based technique (InSAR), the authors find that parts of the Yellowstone Caldera rose as much as 7 cm (~3") per year during the period 2004-2006. The uplift is most noticeable at the White Lake GPS station, as has been discussed in YVO's monthly YVO updates during the past year. As of late October 2007, the total uplift since 2004 at that location is about 17 cm (~7"). Chang and his colleagues credit the relatively rapid rise to recharge of magma into the giant magma chamber that underlies the Yellowstone Caldera. They also used numerical modeling to infer that the magma intruded about 10 km (6 miles) beneath the surface.

North of this region of uplift, another area at Yellowstone has moved downward over the past three years. This north rim uplift anomaly (NUA) had risen during the period 1996-2003, when the rest of the caldera had subsided. The activity was featured in a 2006 article in Nature Magazine with lead author Charles Wicks, one of the co-authors on the new article in Science Magazine. Chang and others hypothesise that magma input after 2004 caused fracturing of the crust that resulted in release of hydrothermal fluids from the north rim area. The loss of fluid pressure then resulted in deflation, or subsidence of the ground surface.

Interestingly, the Yellowstone caldera has remained seismically quiet during the past three years of uplift. An earlier article on the YVO website, Satellite Technologies Detect Uplift in the Yellowstone Caldera, provides context on the techniques used to study these movements. The new activity, though more rapid than those previously measured at Yellowstone, is not unprecedented at large calderas around the globe. Given the absence of large earthquakes, earthquake swarms and anomalous behaviour of Yellowstone's hydrothermal system (its geysers, mud pots and fumaroles), all of us find little indication that the volcano is moving towards an eruption. At this time, volcanic eruptions and hydrothermal explosions remain an unlikely possibility. Given the geologic history of the area, it is likely that the current period of uplift will cease, to be followed by another cycle of subsidence. When this might happen, though, is unknown.

During the month of October 2007, 34 earthquakes were located in the Yellowstone Region. The largest of these shocks was a magnitude 2.1 on October 17, 2007 at 0639hrs MDT, located about 26 miles southeast of West Thumb, WY. There were no swarms and no earthquakes were reported felt during October. Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at low background levels.

Ground Deformation Summary: Through October 2007, continuous GPS data show that most of the Yellowstone caldera continued moving upward at similar to slightly lower rates as the past year. The maximum measured ground uplift over the past 36 months is ~17 cm at the White Lake GPS station. An example can be found at: http://pboweb.unavco.org/shared/scripts/stations/?checkkey=WLWY&sec=timeseries_plots&timeseries=raw .

 The general uplift of the Yellowstone caldera is scientifically interesting and will continue to be monitored closely by YVO staff.

The colour code at Yellowstone is currently at GREEN.

Ancient "Supervolcano" Rocked Washington State

Richard A. Lovett
for National Geographic News
February 6, 2007

Tahoma (Rainier so-called by crazy white men) could easily become the same kind of event.

Vortex Tectonics: How earth's spin axis creates earthquakes, volcanoes & global warming.

Subscribers can now download a draft review of a few chapters of  "The Nine Trends Changing The World - 1875-2025" - How Global Warming Is Caused By Underwater Volcanism and Why Greenhouse Gas Is Just Hot Air". 

 THE RISING PHOENIX

[11-06-06]  I can now provide numbers and graphs which demonstrate that the current Global Warming trends CAN ONLY be produced by underwater volcanism.  The rising CO2 in the atmosphere is also likely produced by underwater volcanism, which is occurring at a rate underwater which is at least 10,000 times greater than surface volcanism.  With these numbers I am finalizing the proofs of Edgar Cayce’s Earth Change prophecies.  Global Warming is the “fire” of the Phoenix. 

Mean Annual Heat Flux Into The Oceans:  109 Terawatt

This is the amount of mean steady-state heat flux required to cause the warming of the World Ocean from 1957 to 1998.  This amount is three times greater than old theories.

Mean Minimum Annual Heat Flux Into The Oceans:  ~33 Terawatt

(although this is the widely-quoted number in the scientific literature, this is based purely on old-timey speculations which have little basis in actual fact; modern observations provide the basis to reasonably infer much higher numbers)

Mean Maximum Observed Peak Flairs Of Heat Flux:  ~1000 Terawatt
(from observed underwater volcanic eruptions of  a few weeks in duration)

Likely Range Of Annual Volcanic Heat Flux Into The Bottom Of The Oceans:  33 to 150 Terawatt. (This estimate is based on an extensive review of the literature of marine geology and oceanography for the past 25 years.  Numbers were compiled by many authors for various types of underwater volcanism and their numbers are added together to define this range).  They are being added together for the first time here in the Earth Changes Bulletin.  Much more to come.

The last item provides plenty of energy to sustain an empirically-based speculation that Global Warming is caused by underwater volcanism. This is a far more realistic source than the theorized small amount of "reflected heat" from a minute amount of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere.

The implications of this "discovery" are profound.  On the one hand "Greenhouse Gases" are not a direct threat to the climate and spending money on eradication of CO2 emissions in order to stop Global Warming is misguided.  On the other hand, the oceans are slowly warming and climate is changing radically and there is not much we can do about either one.  Furthermore, we have no clear empirical way to estimate what this trend will do in the future.  We can however look back into the past and observe that both short term and long term fluctuations do occur and the amount of change has often swung much further into higher temperatures, higher acidification of the oceans, and wider climate extremes.  In other words, we have no idea what is going to happen next, on empirical grounds, but it can change profoundly more than we know how to describe and can anticipate.

The long and short of it is that Global Warming is a serious threat to all human cultures and it must be assiduously dealt with on every level to avoid profound tragedy.

Mind

GEOPOLITICAL WATCH:  Strategic Assessments

( Mass Behavior, War & Peace, Politics, Black Arts Nation )

Mass Behavior:

CHECK OUT MOOD ALERT:  8 Point Alert for December 10/11, 2007

Check out the Mood Alert occasionally at http://www.moodalert.com/
It is astrologically oriented but incorporates solar and geophysical indexes as well.  Cautionary note:  they confuse planetary conjunctions (an astrological term which describes relative positions with the Earth in the center reference point) by calling them planetary alignments, which is an ASTRONOMICAL term which denotes relative positions with the Sun as the center reference point.  We wish they wouldn't do that.  The EC Bulletins uses only a Solar-oriented frame of reference to track planetary alignments.

THE SPIRITUAL FLUX:

from October 1, 2007

AS I MEDITATED ON MY EARTH MEDICINE WHEEL THIS MORNING AND REACHED PAST SAMADHI TO HIGHER CONNECTIONS, I ASKED LOUDLY HOW WE ARE TO COPE WITH THIS, HOW TO MOBILIZE A CHANGE IN THE FLOW OF EVENTS.  I COMPLAINED TO THE HIGH HEAVENS THAT THE ANTI-WAR ACTIVITIES ARE OBVIOUSLY INSUFFICIENT, AWKWARD, CLUMSY, AND FAR TOO SLOW. THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS FULL OF QUACKS AND CONS, PARALYZING THE VOICE OF THE PEOPLE.  THE WARCAST MEDIA IS CRAVENLY COMPLICIT IN THE CRIMES. YET 70% OF THE POPULATION OF NORTH AMERICA DESIRES AN END TO THIS MILITARIZATION, VIOLENCE, AND IMPERIAL SMUCKERY.  HOW CAN THE PEOPLE MASS THEIR WILL AND DISSOLVE ALL THE PRETENSIONS.   THE ANSWER I GOT WAS PROFOUNDLY SIMPLE.  MAKE A GREAT NOISE.  PEOPLE SHOULD JUST FOCUS ON COORDINATING MAKING A SOUND AT CERTAIN TIMES AND REPEATING REPEATING REPEATING THROUGH THE DAYS AND WEEKS UNTIL A GREAT NOISE HAS ARISEN OVER THE ENTIRE CONTINENT.  THIS ALLOWS EACH PERSON TO ACT INDIVIDUALLY, CONVENIENTLY, BUT IN COOPERATION AND TANDEM, CREATING AN ACT OF POWER WHICH DESTROYS THE PSYCHOTIC DELUSIONS OF THE IMPERIAL CABAL.

This long hot summer will bring the beginning of the end of this horrible tragedy which the Globalists call the war in Iraq.  In light of the above is this wishful thinking? NO. See it for what it is.  Talk it for what it is. Share it for what it is.  See that the tissue of lies and deceptions broadcast corporately uber alles is what it is. Deny its validity.  Free everyone to admit what they already know, that it stinks.  Admitting that it stinks to the high heavens is the truth by which we can all set each other free.

THE CHENEY/BUSH JUNTA IS ALMOST COMPLETELY ISOLATED AND ITS FORMER COALITION DISINTEGRATES BY THE HOUR.  BUT IT STILL HOLDS THE POWER.  TO UPSTAGE WHAT THE MANY REGARD AS ITS ERRORS, THE JUNTA PLANS BOLD NEW ACTS OF MASS MAYHEM TO MOOT THE PAST AND CHANGE THE AGENDA OF THE NATION AND THE WORLD.

WILL GHANDI PLEASE STAND UP?

Central Casting is calling. This job opportunity is awesome.  The Mob which has corrupted the U.S. and runs the Boogieman Media and supplies the voting machines must be "bankrupted" and "dissolved" out of power.   The American people are going to have to assemble and duly set forth both an uncorrupted law and a new government to administer it.

KEEP ON Meditation - IT IS PAYING huge dividends AND THOSE WHO MEDITATE ALREADY KNOW IT!!!

The energetic influx is stupendous. Tune into the cosmic scene, drop out of the lunatic asylum known as Earth, and regroup your energy. The Spirit Dimension is up-scaling radically.  Know it, join hands, a huge wave of energy and consciousness change is coming rapidly to help lift North Americans out of the talons of the awful Incubus which has seized control of New York and Washington DC.

THIS MESSAGE IS STILL THE CRUX OF MATTER:  The flux is moving simultaneously in both a positive and a negative direction, completing the polarization of North America and birthing the division of Americans into one of two societies.  On one hand is the same old Jingo Party, originally led by Andrew Jackson, who started the  Indian Wars to make the world safe for his kind and his fellow slavers, whose Jingoism and Wars have continued unabated fashioning the New World Order Empire. On the other hand is the same old Peace Party, composed of  the same old prairie populists, spiritual idealists, and Sitting Bull conservatives who are resisting the same old assertions of nationalism and wars with foreign powers to expand the powers of the plutocrats.  The battleground between these societies is the Mass Media industry, as it has always been.  It is in the media that the soul of America will finally be found or discovered to be finally lost under a mountain of lies for the people who inhabit the continent.  Even as the spirit stirs to create powerful political conditions to block the Jingoes  and move the U.S. towards peace policies, the Jingoes have begun a massive counter-attack to poison the mind and emotions of Americans with another round of Boogiemen.  Be afraid, America, be very afraid, the Jingoes exclaim in every media, the Boogiemen of Iran are out to get you!  And if it is not them, there are other boogiemen under every other third rock.  Look Dick, said Jane, there is one over there in the college.  Oh no, now there is another one in the Fuel Tank of the Airport.  Oh Dick, said Jane, I am very frightened.  The only thing real about the Boogiemen is the War OF Terror which is being waged upon the American people by the demented Incubus in the Warcast Media which insists in following Andrew Jackson's jingo bigot footsteps.

[2-27-07 ECB] The spirit is now moving decisively and is  rising with determination to gain the upper hand.  The American public now sees through the Punch and Judy show of entrenched plutocrat politics, the worthlessness of the Warcast Media, and the lying deceptions on which lunatics are attempting to engineer a New World Empire.  More, the public now also knows that a majority truly knows.  As this consciousness of a new shared majority consensus reality blooms into greater certainty, positive political, legal, and economic change will begin to flow. Bush has become a sort of historical toxic pill which has caused the body politic to begin a  long process of rejecting the poisons of many decades which had nearly overcome it.  Like the King of the Rohirrim, whose mind and will had become numbed by the cleverly lying tongue of the ambitious Warmtongue, Americans are awakening to the realization of the truth about the parasitical pirates who infect its political and economic institutions and who have led a once successful Republic into a wholly corrupt and increasingly evil empire.  Even as all seems nearly lost under the assault of the Rings of Power, the Will to the Good is rising.  A deep, profound psychological moment has come to North America, the mind of its people are changing rapidly in many fundamental ways.  This rising tide will lift all useful institutions, and flood out the rotten ones.

Economy:

[11-26-07]  This is it!!!  The slide in the last few days has been 10% in the NY Stock Exchange and all the analysts are sweating off their fat  nervously pacing the aisles while reports and rumors of reports of greater losses and declarations of insolvency soon to come from even big names in the financial world mount up as a blizzard of confusion all around them.  Huge panics in Asia will spook euro circles and NY even more this week.....bye bye Miss American Pie, the levy's bone dry.  Cayce gave the formula for predicting the year some 70 years ago and once again is RIGHT ON THE MONEY.  As the forces contend between the factions, cliques, and money houses of the international "families", numbers will gyrate, here advancing, there declining, but over all thinning down to much lower levels.  The year 2008 will be the year of the Free Fall.

AS YOU CAN SEE MORE CLEARLY EVERY WEEK, THE PACE OF COLLAPSE IS QUICKENING AND THE DANGER OF A VERY DEEP DEPRESSION IS VERY HIGH.  More and more extreme bears are showing up.   A long depression in the U.S. is slowly settling in and likely will bottom in 2008/2009.  It will likely take a full seven years to pull out of this nose dive.  Figures by moderate bears are now ranging between 20 to 30%.  Figures by skeptical bears are in the 40%-60% range LONG TERM.  With the collapse of the housing industry, unemployment is rolling heavily throughout the continent, worsening throughout the remainder of this year and well into 2008.  Meanwhile a vicious inflation cycle has commenced with the escalating price of oil.  This is HOW YOU AND I WILL PAY FOR THE CABAL'S MILITARY CAMPAIGN OF TERROR IN THE MIDDLE EAST.  All real commodity goods will increase by another 50% in the next few years, AT LEAST.  The value of the dollar is being rapidly adjusted downward to compensate for the high levels of unpayable dollar debts and reduce the ability of Americans to purchase international goods.  Real producers, such as China,  will get the oil and the value of their labor will rise rapidly against the value of American labor.   In all cases, regardless of short term fluctuations, Eurasia up, Latin America  up. Buy Euros.  Asia, still so tied to American consumers, is risky for the next few years until they re-orient to serving primarily Eurasian markets.

MUST READING:  For the latest economic profiling on the now rapidly accelerating crash SEE Charles Hugh Smith. This site is succinctly laying out what  I have been talking about the past few years. Smith is very bright, very astute, and offers great graphs and history lessons.   Read especially his "Empire of Debt I: The Great Unraveling Begins".  It's here and its bad.  We are in the melt down and according to him the unraveling of the past several years of speculation and asset  increases will occur during the next several weeks.  Funny thing that, the Web-bots and Half Past Human are saying the same things.

For extensive update dossier on the banking panic and economic crash, see

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/earthchange-bulletins/message/4136

A VERY GOOD SYNOPSIS to the current scene:  Brasscheck TV On The Bubble

Watch these and you will understand what has been happening and what is about to happen: US Bubble Deflation:  20 to 30%.  Currency depreciation in this range. Gold is not the hedge the gold-bugs tout.  ALL ANALYSTS AGREE THAT 2008 WILL BE EVEN WORSE.  THIS "CORRECTION' WILL DOG ALL OF THIS YEAR AND PROBABLY ALL OF NEXT YEAR. Eurasian economy is going gangbusters. China's engine of production has replaced the U.S. economy.  Nobody needs the U.S. economy and a good portion of the world will do fine during 2008.

BUT NOTE:  VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:  The Rockefeller/Rothschild plunge protection racket has already bailed out the major U.S. brokerages and banks.  The seedy bonds are being snapped by the offshore Fed accounts to maintain liquidity. They will push strongly to maintain the symbolic levels of the DJI to preserve certain illusions. New definition for the Dow Jones Industrials:  The Dumbshitz Jabberwocky Index.  DON'T BE SUCKERED PUNCHED BY THE NEW RISING OF THE Jabberwock.

MASSIVELY MASSIVE COLLAPSE OF THE HOUSING INDUSTRY CONTINUES. Both white collar and blue collar unemployment will become unreal during the next twelve months.  Some of the illegal immigration will finally disappear.  No jobs and no prospects for jobs.

NO OTHER NEW NEWS.  YOU ALREADY GOT ALL YOU NEED.

As predicted here during the last few years, the Global System is now rapidly readjusting all basic American economic values to pay for the tragedy in Iraq and the outsourcing of economic production abroad.   The slide continues.  You want more stats?  You don't need them.  All Bears are warning everywhere of a further slide in the value of the dollar relative to Euro and Gold.  Act accordingly.   Euro economic expansion is accelerating.  Eurasian economic links are displacing North American dynamics.  The world economy, by intelligent choice of Eurasians, is bifurcating and will pull a good portion of Latin America with it.  North American economy can tank out in bankruptcy while Eurasia continues to expand.  The illegal aliens in the U.S. have traveled the wrong direction.  In a few years, a good portion will be going South.  All this will be evident in spades during the next 36 months.

For more details, see the Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of

July 23, 2007

War & Peace:

WAR RISK IS STILL HIGH BUT MAY BE DECLINING.  We have come a long way during the past 12 months.

CROOKED, CORRUPT ELEMENTS WHICH HAVE SEIZED UNUSUALLY GREAT POWER OVER THE U.S. UNDER THE MORONIC LEADERSHIP OF LITTLE BUSH STILL APPARENTLY INTEND TO "DO" IRAN WITH  A RUTHLESSLY CRUEL, BARBARIAN BOMBING CAMPAIGN AGAINST A NATION OF HAPLESS, INNOCENT HUMAN BEINGS NO LATER THAN MID-SPRING, 2008.

BUT, they are running out of steam and their window of crime opportunity is rapidly closing.  Large numbers of people are agitated about the Cheney-Bin-Laden war-mongering and his ludicrous finger-puppeteering with bogus boogiemen.   People are talking widely about the absurdity of expansion of warfare, the Cabal is openly in disarray over basic strategy, international financiers are gravely in conflict about the inability of the U.S. to continue on its current course, and the coalition of opposition to the current political class (Demoquacks, Republicons, and the Warcast Media which shills the agendas arranged for them by the Cabal) is growing and crystallizing rapidly into a massive movement.  An intense campaign of  Orwellian agit-prop by the vast Black Arts Nation (military-industrial complex) is falling flat on its face because huge numbers of Americans are now permanently conditioned to expect that Bush, his government, the den of iniquity known as the CIA, and Congress do nothing but pose, posture, and lie.  Major military leaders keep appearing to contradict the shmeer of demented thoughts which passes for Bush policy pronouncements.  It is very doubtful that another incident of U.S. contrived synthetic terror will convince the two thirds of the U.S. population who now utterly despise the cess-pool of Washington DC  that Bush should be followed even so far as the bathroom.  Who knows what Republicon pervert may be lurking there?

The current  historical parallel:  the Cabal is rerunning the Fall of 2002, the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.  Even the timing of their assault on Iran is likely to be somewhat the same, though I suspect that it will be later in the year, perhaps the late Spring as opposed to the early Spring.

For additional details,  see the "rant": http://www.capitolhillblue.com/

New Yorker Magazine,  from Seymour Hersh in "Shifting Targets" (click for article).   Hersh pretty well confirmed this past summer that the die was cast. But his and countless other visible warnings and communications may have had the effect of dissolving the ground away from the plotters.  They may now be unable to proceed even if Bush remains determined to "do it".

So continue to keep in mind at all times during the next eight months:

THERE IS STILL A RISK OF FALSE-FLAG TERRORIST OPERATIONS INSTIGATED BY RIGHT-WING THUG ELEMENTS IN THE CIA, MOSSAD, MK5, AND ALLIED MOBS WORKING AS AGENTS FOR AN INTERNATIONAL CABAL composed of Anglo-American-Jewish elements through to Spring, possibly October 2008.

In parallel with these False-Flag terrorist incidents, or even without them, there will be an unrelenting, accelerating bigoted propaganda campaign aimed to portray Iranian and Syrian people as terrorist barbarians ("the only good "one" is a dead one").  The governments of Israel and the U.S. will step up their current schedule of incursions into these countries and commit  more acts of violence against these people, claiming to protect "American lives".   These acts, as they are now, will be aimed at provoking responses from Syrians and Iranians for building a rationale for greater criminal assaults on these people who cannot offer an effective defense against American technology.  Unless Cheney/Bush are halted by massive and aggressive international and domestic pressures, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY that they will use  false-flag terrorist acts as a pretext for launching an unparalleled  CRIMINAL BRUTAL BARBARIAN BOMBING ASSAULT ON IRAN and possibly Syria as well.  The justification will be to destroy weapons of mass destruction.  But the intent, as with the destruction of  Lebanon in 2006 by Israel and the Cheny/Bush Junta, may be to destroy the industrial basis of Iran sufficiently to reduce its people into poverty for a generation.  The Cheney/Bush Junta may also use the operations to seize control of Iran's oil fields adjacent to Iraq under the pretext of seeking "reparations".

For an extensive dossier on the War Threat: see http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/earthchange-bulletins/messages
Read Messages 4146 through to 4158

Review as well Messages from September 10-16

And keep reviewing what is sent during the next 90 days.  We will post as much information on this topic as seems useful to  form an intelligent perspective.  A lot more detail than has been typical may flow through this newsletter.

THE CROOKED U.S. GOVERNMENT MUST BE SHUT DOWN IN PREPARATION FOR CRIMINAL HEARINGS AGAINST THE BUSH/CHENEY JUNTA AND SCORES OF ITS ZIONAZI AGENTS

THERE IS ONLY ONE WORD FOR THE PUBLIC AGENDA AND THE WORD IS IMPEACHMENT:  The only institutional method left to prevent the Imperial Faction from manipulating the U.S. into a deeper and broader war in the Middle East during the next twelve months is to immediately undertake the impeachment of the Cheney/Bush Junta.

THEY, the sold and bought self-styled national political  elite, has consolidated itself as an Imperial Class sitting in the first class cabins of the S.S. Titanic.  THEY WILL NOT END OUR NATIONAL DISGRACE.  There is something terribly wrong here, it is clear that our Republic no longer functions, that the Mass Media is merely a propaganda shill machine which abandoned real news gathering many years ago, and that the electorate, as an electorate, has lost its ability to elect people who will enact an overwhelmingly national collective desire to stop the tragedy in Iraq.

IT HAS COME TO US FINALLY AT THIS TIME

THAT IF WE WISH TO END

THE NATIONAL TRAGEDY INTO WHICH WE HAVE FALLEN,

WE MUST MAINTAIN

A RELENTLESS FOCUS OF WILL TO OVERCOME.

A RELENTLESS FOCUS OF WILL

ON

ONE ISSUE,

ONE TOPIC,

ONE AGENDA,

ONE DECISION,

ONE ACTION

BY CONGRESS & THE AMERICAN PEOPLE:

IMMEDIATELY IMPEACH BUSH/CHENEY/RICE.

WITH THE HARDEST POSSIBLE WILL OF IRON,

MUST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

COME TO RELENTLESSLY COMMUNICATE

 THIS ONE DECISION

EVERY DAY

IN EVERY WAY POSSIBLE.

IF IT TAKES A YEAR

TO BRING THE AMERICAN NATION

BEFORE THE JUDGMENT OF GOD AND HISTORY

THAT THIS HORRIBLE TRAGEDY MAY  END,

SO BE IT.

BE RESOLUTE, NOTHING ELSE
ON THE PUBLIC STAGE MATTERS.

BE RELENTLESS.

NO CANDIDATE, NO MARCH, NO ORGANIZATION,

NO CONGRESSIONAL RESOLUTION

CAN END THE NIGHTMARE.

ONLY THE RELENTLESS,

 IRON WILL OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE,

 COMMUNICATED FIRMLY EACH AND EVERY DAY,

 WILL CREATE THE FORCE OF PRESENCE

BY WHICH RIGHT WILL BE DONE.

Everyone must put their finger in the dike. I began in late 2002 with a severely radical critique of the jingoism and mass-media programming which was driving Americans into an imperial expansion which would fail.  At that time many of my subscribers grumbled and complained about my politics and questioned my judgment. They don't anymore. Now they see the truth of the matter in their own terms.

Put your finger in the dike. Do something personal, anything you think appropriate, EVERY DAY, to communicate the overwhelming need to IMPEACH BUSH/CHENEY.  Finally, when the mass media fully realizes that it is a dodo out to lunch and cannot persuade a carrot of the legitimacy of the powers that be, they will relent and rush to the head of the pack to continue their pretense of leadership.  Congress then will throw in the towel and commence impeachment.

It may take a full year of maintaining this relentless focus of will.  Do it.

You might want to check out http://www.pdamerica.org

Politics:

The Democrats have failed to deliver on their words and promises and are wasting our time with one phony pose after another.  About 80% of congressional Democrats are now as much as incompetently responsible as the Republicons for the Tragedy in Iraq.

We can already see that the Zionazi money, which funds both parties, is already destroying the Democratic Party as well as the Republican Party.  Both are currently on a rapid trajectory of extreme factionalization over rejection of the wars, globalism, and economic mismanagement.  Conditions HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE RIPE for third parties or "independent" candidates.

Beware a new false terror gambit, another episode of synthetic "false-flag" terror, instigated by Dr. Demento "the dick" Cheney and his  Zionazi Mossad terrorist allies.  All signs, all moves on the Grand Chessboard, demonstrate the movement of primary "assets" into placement for a blitzkrieg air assault on Iran.  Money, ships, surging force levels in the Middle East, appointment of lick-spittle bureaucrats into supreme positions of power, and many other signs suggest the obvious.   Given the full press court of New York Zionazi Money to support the idea of broadening and greatly deepening U.S. militarism in the Middle East and other areas, as witnessed by the huge sums of money which are being thrown into support of McCain's and Giuliani's candidacies, we should be greatly concerned about Dr. Demento's Gambit. 

Meanwhile, Gaza has been reduced to a ghetto which will now become a closed off prison for any Palestinian in the west bank or Lebanon who does not agree to be ruled by CIA clients. THIS IS THE REAL TERRORISM, VISITED DAILY ON MILLIONS OF PEOPLE.  Apparently the Palestinians are to be completely bitch-slapped out of Gaza for the good of Greater Zionazi.  The Abbas and Fatah puppet show will play one last engagement in the West Bank, then gradually disappear on dark and stormy nights.  The complete and abject failure of the western peoples to abide by the democratic criteria they imposed on Palestine is the final betrayal, and Jimmy Carter is the only American statesman who is speaking the truth, though the man is so cautious much of his real message is veiled in moralized abstractions.   A final war between Israel and the rest of the world may now be inevitable.  The Zionazis obviously hoped to reap the kinds of rewards of Andrew Jackson's heirs in stealing a continent, but, like Custer, Israel simply cannot prevail in the long run. 

Meanwhile in the U.S., political fractionalization is increasing and an exceptional breakdown of the two party electoral system is already well underway.   The Imperial Faction will drive the degeneration, inadvertently, by forcing increased synthetic terror in various forms and by playing out a serious covert campaign to incite a war with Iran.  It is the last strategic piece which extreme Zionazi's want to suck out of the of the dying Bush regime.  It is not likely they can do so without creating extreme controversy and agitation in the U.S., BUT IT IS NOW OVERWHELMINGLY OBVIOUS THAT THEY INTEND TO TRY.  A very sick core of manipulators fully intend to trash out the remaining vestiges of constitutional rule in the U.S. by using international violence and Zionazi "emergencies" to diktat the rise of a Globalist Aristocracy, cloaked in "corporatism", to rule over much of the world.  Iran is now the emerging foil by which they intend to induce the "emergencies" to complete the militarization of the U.S.

The painting of this fabric is a conscious, deliberate, knowing act of mass manipulation.  They continue to get caught at it and not even a sigh is even heard anymore.  The Warcasters continue in lockstep working assiduously at shilling the expansion of militarism in the Middle East for their clients in the Cabal. Now they are painting the propaganda line that it is going to take another two years of murderous destruction in Iraq to stamp out the Boogiemen there.  Despite the fact that nearly EVERY KNOWLEDGEABLE historian, social analyst, and political source has expertly informed the world that al Qaeda and terrorism has very little or nothing to do with what is happening in Iraq, the American Warcasters en masse are still playing the Bush'iter al Qaeda line, casting the American role in Iraq as a struggle against al Qaeda which the American people dare not lose.  This is just another massive heap of dishonest crap which continues to bury what was once rumored as the greatest nation on the world.  Humbug Rules.  These lies are a stench over the entire Earth, yeah even unto the Heavens, the prophets of old are saying as they role over in their graves.  Ghandi, please stand up.  The people need to drive these lunatics out of power and out of the corporations before they kill again.  But you have not seen anything yet.  THE BIG TIME PSY-OPS CAMPAIGN HAS ONLY BARELY BEGUN.  There will be the attempt made later this year to incite bombing attacks on Iran - in the FALL AFTER SOME SYNTHETIC TERROR OPERATION IN THE U.S.   It's name is Dick Cheney.  This is clearly in the works and one can see more and more of the story lines being planted each week by the Warcast Media to huff up a growing psychological fear/hate bubble. 

THE LAST MAJOR PLAYER FOR THE GAME:  It may be so-called immigration reform.   With Bush's corporate immigration policies, the Imperial Faction will have a full suite of sticks and carrots to induce millions of Hispanics to take a fully paid vacation in the Middle East, or even Iraqis for that matter.

IMPEACHMENT WATCH

[7-30-2007 ECB]

From Previous Weeks:

PUBLIC WARNING:  For your safety and mental health,
TURN OFF THE NEW YORK WARCAST MEDIA
U.S. Public Is Being Subjected To An Intensive Propaganda Campaign To Build Support For Expanding U.S. Military Operations In The Middle East in Iraq, Iran, & Pakistan

NO ANGLO-AMERICAN TERROR ALERT HAS CREDIBILITY
NONE CAN BE DISTINGUISHED FROM SYNTHETIC TERROR
Reporters, Editors, & Anchors In The N.Y. Mass Media Warcasters Are Caught Up In And Are Often Lost  In Paranoid Delusions, Sheer Fantasy, & War Hysteria Driven By  24/7 by Lunatics With No Ability To Detect Reality.

August 11, 2007 to August 22, 2007 may be the time frame for the next wave of SYNTHESIZED 911-like terror attacks.  Some extend this period until the end of September.  More probable than not, it will not come much later.  Read Webster Tarpley's PUBLIC WARNING.

Cheney Determined To Strike
http://www.rense.com/general77/chens.htm
In US With WMD This Summer
Only Impeachment, Removal or General
Strike Can Stop Him
By Webster G. Tarpley
7-21-7

Tarpley is a professional student of history, is highly knowledgeable, is not pushing any ideological agenda (accept that TRUTH should rule), and has become the anti-establishment intelligence operative for free humanity.  Nearly the entire anti-establishment, anti-imperial American intelligensia, including left, right, or centrist, are also in a state of high anxiety and depression that a juggernaut of militarism, war against Iran and Pakistan, imperial occupations, and dictatorship is about to roll over what is left of U.S. institutions as Zionazi cliques and the Bush Crime Family strive to surmount opposition and the growing 911 truth and impeachment movements which are now dogging their footsteps everywhere.

The only way this can be stopped is to begin IMPEACHMENT proceedings against Dick Cheney, who is widely regarded as  the criminal mastermind behind the first 911 and the planning for the next "911" as a pretext for war against IRAN.