Western North
America
Quakes 2+ Annual Daily Average 1991-2007
portrait chart by
MWM;
model source: ANSS Catalog; WESTAM_2+_1991-2007.xls by MWM
westam_quakes2+_annual_avedaily_1991-2007.gif
Western North
America
Quakes 2.5+ Annual Daily Average 1973-2007
portrait chart by
MWM;
model source: ANSS Catalog; WESTAM_2.5+_1973-2007.xls by MWM
westam_quakes25+_annual_avedaily_1973-2007.gif
We saw that we could not establish any
consistent clear connections between earthquakes and the cosmic frame
by looking at All Quakes 4+. But in this small regional zone we find a
very clear correlation. As we can see since 1968, when the Wobble is
its MIN phase (smallest size), quake activity rises over the previous
levels. Sudden increases and even huge spikes of seismic activity
clearly are phased consistently to certain moments in the seven year wobble
cycle (when the wobble has nearly reached its minimum size).
The expanded scroll chart preceding this chart shows the
timing of these huge surges in activity with considerable precision.
(repeat note about the 1980 gap)
There is a less clear connection with Lunar Declination
within this framework of observation. The degree of Lunar Declination
varies yearly though an 18.5 year "Saros Cycle" which governs how the Moon's
orbit intersects the Earth's. The Declination is the measure of how
"tilted" the Moon's Orbit has become, which ranges from 18 to 28 degrees.
Each month during any given year, the Moon rotates above and below the
Equator by nearly the same amount, which slowly changes during the 18 year
cycle from 18 to 28. This chart measures this changing
declination in the blue line.
One can see that there is very nearly repeating phasing
between the Declination and the Wobble Cycle.
There appears in this chart two Saros cycles (37 months) for every six
Wobble cycles (6.9 X 6 = 41 months)
count this on the big charts and
define the math of this better.
But this phasing breaks down through
time and comes out of phase???
This may have something to do with the
apparent times of increased seismic activity as can be seen in the chart.
But this connection is fairly sloppy in this chart. A much more
sophisticated modeling effort would need to be made to establish confidence
in this point.
A clear trend of increase during the 20th century
trend arising, activity coming in fits and starts at various
times as predicted by edgar cayce
trend gradually emerging after 1958 as predicted by Edgar
Cayce
the trend clearly apparent by 1998, as predicted by Edgar
Cayce
activity level, though fallen off of previous highs, is
maintaining at levels many time over the levels of 1958, as predicted by
Edgar Cayce.
By comparing with the connection of activity spikes to the
"phasing" of the Wobble MIN, it is quite obvious that a major spike of
activity was or could be due very shortly.
If, however, we look at the expanded scroll chart to see the
variables on a monthly basis, we could easily argue that the "major spike",
based on past connections, should have occurred sometime during 2006 during
which the Wobble was in its clear MIN phase, which is nearly always betrayed
by considerable instablity in the shape of the waveform.
So what are the qualifiers on this? If this is a
continuing trend which has resulted from long term tectonic acticvity, and
if nothing has altered that trend, it is fair to predict that a major spike
in seismic activity, including more likely than not a 6+ quake, should have
occurred during 2006. For all we know, it could possibly still occur
during 2007. Global charts suggest that the trend continues and we
also have Edgar Cayce who predicts that we now are entering into
a time period of a greater acceleration in tectonic activity.
From this, can we get more precise? It is very
difficult to do on on statistical ground. But it would appear that the
weight of the evidence suggests that the next major spike in California
seismic activity, including at least one quake 6+, will come in about seven
years after the Wobble MIN of 2006, which will be in about 2013. That
does not preclude an occasional large quake occurring in the range of 5 to 6
between now and then.
Accordingly, Vortex Tectonics, looking only backwards at the
past trends, could issue at least one scientifically validated prediction
for the Southern California Area: a major increase in earthquake
activity will occur in approximately 2013, depending upon the timing of the
current seven year wobble cycle (which can vary by several months).
When the Wobble (Chandler) Amplitude is at nearly its next lowest point in
approximately 2013, quake activity will suddenly and dramatically increase.
This will include at least one destructive 6+ quake.
The problem with this is that the Change In The Earth is
accelerating. The Global Trend is changing everything and as the
acceleration continues, the response in local tectonic zones, such as
Southern California, is likely to shift as well.
This leaves us with the future as an open book of blank
pages...
Western North America 4+ 1973-2007
portrait by MWM 2007
model source: ANSS Composite Catalog; World_Quake_Summary.xls by MWM
quakes4+_westam_1973-2007.gif
This zone includes
the Rocky Mountain Cordillera from Northern Mexico to the Yukon to the Pacific
Coasts. Excluded are most of Alaska and the Aleutians, which are
modeled separately as an indepentant plate fragment.
since there is
substantial reason to believe that this zone is an independent plate fragment
which is moving independently of North America and may be colliding with North
America.
No trend. But the two highest peaks correspond with the
smallest sizes of the Wobble.
The Rockies to the Pacific Coast, from the Arctic Circle to
the Carib Plate Margin, excludes Alaska
Western North America 2.5-3.9 1973-2007
portrait by MWM 2007
model source: ANSS Composite Catalog; World_Quake_Summary.xls by MWM
quakes_25-39_westam_1973-2007.gif
This is the same
zone as the chart for 4+ quakes in Western North America.
What happens when we include the much more
numerous smaller quakes? Still no trend of growth, but there could be a
trend of decrease. We also can see that more of the peaks of quake
activity occur when the wobble is at its smallest. This chart reveals an
important truth. For the North American Tectonic Zone (as defined in the
search algorhythm) there has been no "report inflation" since 1973.
Look at the area 1992 to 1995, which contains two "dips in the
Wobble size. The strongest correlation of peaks with the Wobble in Eurasia
and the Western Pacific Rim of Fire was in 1994/1995 Wobble Min.
Here an enormous spike of activity correlates with the Wobble Min of 1992.
There are four peaks of quake activity, all small, which
correlate with the smallest sizes of the Wobble.
NOTICE HOWEVER THAT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN ZONE APPEARS LOCKED.
Unlike the previous 33 years, quake activity has not surged during the Wobble
Min of 2006. It did in 1999, like most of the other zones, but activity has
remained at low levels, even below the historical 33 year average.
All the zones of Eurasia and the Western Rim
of Fire responded to the Wobble Min of 2006 with a significant acceleration of
quake activity in 2006, some of which is continuing. This acceleration was
significantly larger than the peaks of 1999. Australia, for instance, is
experiencing levels twice as high as during 1999.
I think the plot has thickened even more. What does this
lack of response mean? Very good question. If there were a table at
Las Vegas which took bets on quakes, I would place a large sum of money on a
major increase in average quake activity in the U.S. West Coast, most likely San
Diego to San Francisco, during the last half of 2007.
In this next chart, let's examine the future trend, at least
so far as Excel's mathematics can show us.
|
