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Solar Activity & Sunspot Cycles Abstract | Major Findings | Table of Conents | Storyboard Introduction | Background SOLAR ACTIVITY: 300 Year Sunspot Charts | Correlation With Global Warming | Al Gore Paradigm Buster Long Range Cycles | Correlation With Earth's Wobble | Predictions For Solar Cycle 24 & 25 Other Charts & Graphs & Documents Earth Changes Bulletin: SUBSCRIBE | UNSUBSCRIBE ||| Updates | Archive | Almanac
Gallery
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SUNSPOTS Sunspots are intensely powerful magnetic vortices on the gaseous surface of the Sun. Highly polarized as are all magnetic phenomenon, Sunspots come in polar pairs equivalent to a North and South Pole. Since they are lower in temperature than the average surface of the Sun, they are easily seen through simple telescopes as dark marks on the Sun. Typically seen near the sunspots are bright zones known as faculae (singular = facula), which means, generically, a bright spot. Line the sunspots, the faculae are the creation of magnet forces. But the faculae are so bright, they typically are "brighter" the "darkness" of the sunspots. Thus when sunspots are abundant, the faculae increase the average luminescence of the Sun Thus when the Sunspot Count is high during its peak phases, the Sun can be as much as 0.1% more luminescent than is normal. SOLAR STORMS, FLARES, CME'S, AND PLASMOID WIND Directly associated with sunspot activity, especially large groups of them, are often intense solar storms which can take the form of flares, huge volcanic-like explosions which are known as CME's (coronal mass ejections), shooting arcs known as prominences, and sudden fluctuations in the solar wind (plasma of protons and ions) which suddenly begin to flow out of "coronal holes" which form in the outer magnetic atmosphere of the Sun. All this activity tends to rise and fall closely in parallel with the Sunspot Count. SUNSPOT NUMBERS Until the advent of satellites and space probes, activity in the Sun was studied primary through the observation and count of what are called "sunspots". The count of sunspots has been known variously as the Wolf Number, the International Sunspot Number (ISSN), the relative sunspot number, or the Zürich Number). This number measures a composite score which measures both the number of sunspots and the groups of sunspots which are present on the surface of the Sun which can be observed from Earth. The idea of recording and computing sunspot numbers was invented by Rudolf Wolf in 1849 in Zürich, Switzerland, which is why the number was long called the "Wolf Number". There are many sunspot observations which go back to the beginning of Century 16, but researchers have been able to tabulate a consistent Wolf Count only since 1750. This is now known as the ISSN count and the world center for maintaining this count for scientists is housed at the Royal Observatory of Belgium under an organization known as the SIDC:
SUNSPOT CYCLE & SOLAR ACTIVITY CYCLE The Sunspot Count is strongly cyclical but erratic in length and size. It reaches a minimum and maximum point between every 9.5 to 14 years. Heinrich Schwabe defined this cycle in 1843 and FFT mathematics has computed an average cycle length of 10.4883 years. This 10.4 year cycle is typically referred to as the 11 year solar cycle. The minimum point, which is also called SOLAR MINIMA, typically has an average monthly count of less than 10, sometimes less than 5. The maximum phase, called SOLAR MAX in this storyboard, can range between an average annual count of 60 to 200. Daily and Average Monthly counts can reach as high as 500. Some academic scientists call the Solar Sunspot Cycle the Schwabe Cycle after the name of the scientist who first described it. Everyone else simply calls it the Sunspot Cycle. During the last 20 years of the 20th century, space science generated large volumes of data which show that this cycle is fundamental to the timing of all solar events, not just the appearance of sunspots. Hence this cycle would be more appropriately called the "Solar Activity Cycle". A large number of studies have been made of the Solar Activity Cycle which correlate many diverse phenomenon to it. In combination, these studies appear to demonstrate that the 11 year solar cycle rises and falls in intensity through many "amplitude modulation" cycles, ranging from as little as 22 years to as many as 100,000 years. There are now dozens of names associated with these cycles and it will take a generation or more for scientists to sort through all the phenomenon and come up with a consistent template. SOLAR MINIMUM OR MINIMA The date of the MINIMA is the demarcation point between solar cycles. Unfortunately this date cannot be "exactly" known until about six months after it occurs. The reason is very simple: scientists use a method of "averaging" the monthly counts over a period of 12 months to generate what is mathematically known as a "smoothed moving trend". This makes a tidy trend line but creates a "fact" which cannot be observed until well after it has occurred. In practice, close comparison's with previous MINIMA allows one to make an educated guess accurate to within a few months. SOLAR LUMINESCENCE (OR IRRADIANCE) USGS :
SOLAR FLUX & FLARES
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PRIMARY LINKS
Ulysses Home Page -- learn more about NASA's exploration of the inner heliosphere from JPL Magnetic Reversals and Moving Continents -- How do we know Earth's magnetic field flips? This excellent web site from NASA/Goddard reveals the answer. Magnetism - the Key to Understanding the Sun -- an introduction to solar magnetism presented by the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center solar research group The Dynamo Process -- a nice tutorial on magnetic dynamos The Sun's Magnetic Cycel -- from the Goddard Space Flight Center The Spiral of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field -- includes an eye-catching lawn sprinkler animation that illustrates the Sun's spiraling magnetic field. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/ http://www.ucar.edu/research/sun/ Solar Cycle Prediction http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
The Magnetic Field and the Solar Wind - Animation of how it strikes the Earth
How The Solar Wind Creates The Electrical Atmosphere Around The Earth
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(1) Introduction To Sunspots & This Chart This chart provides a summary overview of the past 300 years of overall solar activity. Since most forms of solar activity, including the luminosity which drives our climate, tend in the main to rise and fall with the sunspot count, this count of spots provides an excellent quick view of the energy which is being beamed into the Earth from year to year. Thus this chart provides a quick "snapshot" of the Sun's connection, if any, to humanity's Global Warming issues. Because of the fundamental importance of the Sun's connection to everything which moves on the surface of the Earth, several versions of this chart will unfold below to illustrate the connectivity. |
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see that peak solar activity (the highest points in the Solar
Cycles) rose and fell many times, most recently peak activity
rose gradually from 1934 to achieve a record-breaking high in 1958
at 200. More or less, average solar activity has declined since
then, most especially during the past 30 years. This is easily
seen by the decreasing size of the last three Cycles (S21, S22, &
S23). By making possible this elementary observation, his simple chart disproves the CO2 theory of Global Warming. Since Global Warming a la Greenhouse Gases is nothing more than "reflected heat" which is sourced from the Sun and trapped to linger slightly longer, the more Sun, the more heat, the less Sun the less heat, and in both cases that includes the reflected heat. There is no way to suppose from a small increase in CO2 that Global Warming will accumulate year after year to gradually accumulate higher and higher even though the Sun is decreasing its average output. The reasons and proof of this requires, of course, much greater depth and stronger details than this simple chart provides directly. Other graphs in this Storyboard will round out this evidence and the logic. When the whole story is grasped, it will be readily understood that this simple graph is indeed fully sufficient disprove that the Sun is causing Global Warming directly, or indirectly with the help of human-created Greenhouse Gases. Keep in mind that this is an annual average chart. As will be seen in the other charts, the annual average looks quite different than the monthly average and the daily average. The annual average often "hides" a lot of sporadic activity which can be higher or lower than the average. Accordingly, the real world is more chaotic than the illusion of tidiness which this chart portrays. Keep this ever uppermost in your mind when attempting to make connections to other events and cycles. Nevertheless, this annual chart it is a good starting point for correlating historical events, climatological, human, and geological, with the over all energy input from the Sun. See for instance: Sunspots Cycles & Human History. This is a short printable document with a small one page version of this expanded 300 year chart (ed. note: this document is not currently updated to 2006). The document lists the primary wars and economics booms and busts associated with the sunspot cycle. First a note about Sunspot Cycles and their numbers. The first Sunspot Cycle Number appears in 1760 during a MAX year (look on the graph just above the "year" date. This starting point is just the way it is by scientific convention, all the databases use these numbers. Actually, the cycle begins technically in 1755 or 1756 during the prior nadir in the count (which is typically less than 10). All Sunspot Cycles end and begin at the lowest points in the counts and the cycle numbers are shown in this chart at the MAX year for each cycle. From comments made by historians, I have inferred (without confirmation) that the Sunspot Count was not recorded consistently prior to 1755, thus "voids" in the data preclude using it for studying trends. Next, and most importantly, a note about the Sunspots and their counts. These are counted in a certain way to produce what was once called the "Wolf" number and what is now known as the International Sunspot Number (ISSN). With modern equipment and observation techniques, it is now possible to count more individual sunspots inside "clusters" of the dark areas which mark sunspots. NASA counts all of these to create a "daily" count and sunspot observers report that typically this count is about 30% to 50% higher than the older manner used by Wolf to count Sunspots. A formulae is now used to convert daily "raw" numbers into "ISSN" numbers which are published by the SIDC, which is located at the Royal Observatory in Belgium. The main purpose for these ISSN counts is to provide a consistent measure of Solar Activity for the past 300 years. Earlier scholars felt that having this long profile might be very important for future science and they had no idea how right they were. In fact these numbers are absolute gold in informing us what to think about the critical issue of Global Warming. With the advent of satellite technology and the use of space probes to study the solar system and the Sun, it has become well known in just the past 20 years, that the Sunspot Number is a good indicator of over-all solar activity and its various energy outputs, including most importantly its overall "luminosity". It is in the luminous band of solar output that we get visible light and, of course, most of our radiant heat. The other wavelengths and types of solar output also increase and decrease very closely with the rise and fall of sunspot numbers. These relationships can all be see in Solar Irradiance & Sunspot Correlation 1975-2005. Accordingly, when we look at these graphs of sunspot numbers, we are in fact looking at the rise and fall of most Solar Activity, including the Sun's often intense flares and storms, which is why the charts and storyboard in this Gallery refer to the sunspot counts as the overall measure of Solar Activity. [For lists of articles and highly technical scientific treatises on this subject, see Sunspots in Wikipedia, or read the NASA/NOAA web sites on the topic of Solar Activity, Sunspots, and Trends. These sources all generally advocate the point of view which is described in this Storyboard. I am not aware of ANY school of thought which maintains otherwise]. For some reason which I cannot explain, the number 100 in the average ISSN sunspot count is an important level or peg we can use to simplify our generalizations. It conveniently allows us to separate the low-energy cycles from the strong cycles which have had major historical impacts on Earth and in our lives. Thus the sunspot graphs drawn by MWM in this Gallery show the 100 level with a red line. Levels about 100 seem to be suitably comparable MAX periods for study. Even though their average peaks can vary between 100 and 20o, most range between 110 and 160. With these basic concepts, we can begin now to connect solar activity directly with the Earth by simply and precisely describing what we can observe directly in the "300 Year Chart" (above). The 300 Year Chart conveniently shows three entire centuries plus a tad. Century One: 1700-1799 Let us start with the first century. From 1700-1799, we have five Sunspot Cycles with a peak MAX above 100. Of these, four of the MAX were under 140, and one MAX was almost 160. For all of the 10 Solar Cycles of Century 17, it is very difficult to describe an exact rhythm in these cycles, but they appear generally to come in pairs of nearly equal size with an interloper or two thrown in somewhat randomly. One can almost sense that some of the cycles come in triplets, or even as quadruplets or quintuplets, but this sense comes and goes as one scrolls the graph. These doublets have been the subject of serious scientific discussion and research. The doublet is an established reality because the 10.4 solar cycle is now described by scientists as only one half of a larger 21 year year cycle. This "Solar Magnetic Reversal Cycle" is strongly influenced by the orbital alignments of Jupiter and Saturn, which occurs every 20 years. During the MAX period in the middle of each Sunspot Cycle, the magnetic field of the Sun (as measured by Humans) appears to reverse polarity so that the Magnetic North is suddenly Magnetic South and vice verse. At the end of the next cycle, the polarity reverses back to what it had previously been. This is called the "Hale Cycle" and the easiest way to remember it is that every other Solar Cycle is in the opposite magnetic polarity. The impact of the Hale Reversals is not fully known but it marks the MAX of each Solar Activity Cycle. The last reversal was in 2001 and it is a pretty good bet that the next magnetic reversal will be 2012. There is not yet any real basic theory for why these reversals occur, but the mechanism is coming into better and better view. Based on research by NASA scientist Peter Gilman and others, it appears more and more that the Sun sheds its "magnetic skin" polarity destructively during Solar MAX amidst violent storm activity which features large numbers of Coronal Mass Discharges (CME's). These massive explosions (often many times larger than the Earth) disrupt the old magnetic polarity and permit a reversed magnetic polarity to build strength. (Root around in NCAR/UCAR, and the Marshall Space Flight Center for recent non-mathematical explanations for general audiences about the Sun's magnetic field reversals) The magnetic polarity of the solar energy which impacts the Earth is essentially irrelevant on the global level. There is a hemispheric differential, however, and this may have many geophysical implications, including for Global Warming. The intensely magnetized ionic solar wind and coronal mass ejections (which might be thought of as super magnetic tornadoes) will tend to be attracted most strongly by the opposite magnetic pole of the Earth. Thus any given cycle of the Sun will tend to deliver more ionic energy to one of the two hemispheres of the Earth, causing greater changes in atmospheric expansion, pressure, stirring, and circulation in one half of the globe. These quite obviously will influence climate patterns and oscillations. As can be seen in the chart above, these doublets are relatively easy to spot. Their mirror effects in weather phenomena should be sought out but as far as I know this has xxx - bring in latest findings from Aussie researcher. Century 2: 1800-1899 Now let us cruise into the second century, from 1800 to 1899. We confront a substantially different Sun. During the first 30 years of Century 18, we are suddenly becalmed with very little average solar activity, three peaks in a row with a MAX under 80, two of them (S5 and S6) under 60, which were the lowest MAX in a hundred years. Then with Cycle S8, Solar Activity suddenly pushes a MAX past 140 and then two of the next three MAX periods are also higher than average, S9 above 140, S11 about the same as S8. Between 1834 and 1876, we clearly have a 30 year period of activity which is generally elevated above the preceding 30 year period. It this a cycle? Does it show up again? Many have asked this question and there are a lot of pros and cons on this interesting debate, which has generally been discussed as a short term type of Milankovich Cycle [see Milankovich Cycles]. There are many speculations, no widely accepted answer. Then we suddenly crash into another long period of diminished activity which persists from 1876 through to about 1934. With the exception of S15 in 1917, none of the cycles produce a MAX above 100. For the 19th century overall, only three solar cycles produce a MAX above 100, a rate which is only about 60% of Century 18. Was the 19th century cooler, at least for a major portion of it? It certainly looks like it was and one does not need to go far to find supporting data. See, for instance, the correlation with Carbon-14 formation. Carbon 14 in tree rings is greatest at times when sunspot activity is low. Its relative amount in tree rings thus reveals for the past 1100 years and the past 10,000 years the periods when the Earth was the coolest: Carbon 14 - Solar Activity Cycle Correlation 900 CE - 1950. Century Three: 1900-1999 (actually 2007) The low sunspot output persists well into the 20th century with one notable exception in 1917. The MAX in S15 for 1917 is worth noting because a major advent of drift in the wobble (TPW) and other changes in the wobble begins at very nearly the same time. As can be seen in other portions of the Earth Changes Gallery (Earth's Wobble), there was relatively little drift in the Wobble which can be detected from records during the 19th century. Then, close to the time of a sudden increase in the size of the Solar Activity Cycle, the drift in the Spin Axis began to accelerate. This could be random, this could be profound, and more information about this point will be discovered in other sections of the Earth Change Gallery. (Aside: The wobble drift apparently began after 1910 and appears to have emerged as a trend after 1916.) S15 also may serve as a marker of a profound change in the Solar Sunspot Cycle itself, or at least the appearance of another "swell" in a long range wave or cycle. Observe the remainder of the 20th century. We clearly had eight more cycles during Century 20, seven of which had MAX phases above 100. Beginning with the peak in 1917, we had a total of eight cycles with a MAX above 100, which is 150% greater MAX activity than the 19th century. edit note in the range of 60% greater than Century 18. do the math This all in all is a significant increase in the peak activity of what is, geologically and geophysically speaking, a relatively high frequency cycle which, as a matter of course, transfers immense energy into the Earth. Accordingly, this large increase in solar peak activity must result in an increase in the heat which warms the Earth. Some of this continued annual increase in heat must come to linger or be stored to some extent in the oceans. From this simple observation, some scientists are arguing that this observable increase in average solar activity is the most probable driver of global warming. They are probably partially right, but focus on the qualifier "partially". The amount of this contribution (increased solar activity) is probably small enough to be only one factor among many factors which combine to produce the general level of average temperature and the weather patterns of any given year. The problem with heat of any kind from any source is that it dissipates rapidly when exposed to free air and space. On a cold winter night it is impossible to keep warm even in a well built house without a fire. So it is with the Earth, the increased heat this year, even if stored in a large body of water, will be hard to find in the next cooler year. Thus it is doubtful that there is a significant "carry-over" effect from any rise in the Solar Activity Cycle. The main exception to this problem is the capacity of the oceans and lakes and free water on or in the Earth to store heat over from one year to the next, and there is some evidence, as some graphs below will demonstrate, that some heat effect does carry over. But even with mechanism in place, it is still next to impossible to use the solar influx to explain the continued rise in the temperature of the Earth after 1958. From 1960 onward through to the current day, the average solar influx declined. The influx declined in absolute terms, not relative ones. But despite the relative fading of the Sun's influence, the nominal mean surface temperature of the Earth increased slightly, a little more than .5 Celcius. This is what is known as a fundamental contradiction, in case you had forgotten how to think. (Don't worry, Al, it happens to the best of us). Accordingly , something other than the Sun after 1958 MUST be driving the heat gain in the Earth, but it clearly cannot be the Sun or its reflection agents, which of course is the infamous CO2 or other Greenhouse Gases. Thus quite obviously the problem of understanding Global Warming is more complex, by a magnitude of order, than simply looking at average numbers over a span of time. Simple inferences from annual averages taken over a short span of time must soon fall apart when history is expanded and the interconnections of many variables is brought into perspective. What we can see in the 20th century is so important on this point, we should examine these details much more closely so that they "set" into our thinking. Accordingly, we switch below from the graph with which we we began. Our new graph is a near carbon copy, with the addition of the trend of Global Warming. |
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Let us trace the Solar connection to Global Warming from the Solar MAX in 1917. From S15 through to the S19 MAX in 1957/58, we have an interesting quintuplet of cycles which appear to gradually become larger and larger, elevating the MAX in 1917 from about 105 up to a MAX in 1958 of about 190, the highest MAX period in over 250 years!!! Perhaps the highest count in 1000 years!!!!!! (No one knows!!!!!!!!!!!!!). There is only one exception in this sequence, a lower peak for S16 early on in the progression. Now look at the four Sunspot Cycles after the huge MAX of 1957/1958. All four, (S20-S23) have peaks over 100 but these four show a declining sequence. The last Cycle, which we were still in as of March 2007, is smaller than the previous two by an obviously large amount . With a peak of about 120 average Sunspots, S23 is dwarfed by S21 and S22, both of which had MAX phases averaging a little over 160. This is a difference of 25%, far too large not to produce a significant moderating influence (compared to the previous cycles) on the climate of the Earth and any active trends. In other words, the average peak energies increased for at least 30 years up to 1958 and then began to decline through three Solar Activity Cycles to the present day. Accordingly, we should have experienced the peak Global Warming effect during the 1950's and early 1960's, after which we should have noticed a distinct cooling effect. Even if the oceans were holding some heat over, this stored heat would have been used up in a few years and the cooling would be noticed. This cooling effect should have become strongest during the 1990's and continued through to the present day. In fact, Global Warming was only starting in the middle of Century 19 after Solar Activity had already peaked itself out, and the warming trend has only now (2005-2007) reached a noticeable and easily measured acceleration, despite the fact that we in 2007 are now in a Solar Minima after three progressively smaller, less energetic Solar Activity Cycles. Scroll carefully through the Solar Activity Cycles and examine how the rises in the mean surface temperature of the Earth are many times nearly 180 degrees out of phase with the peak influx of solar energy. In other words, often when the mean temperature trend line has a small peak, the Solar Activity is at Minima, demonstrating little to zero connectivity in the two measurements. Scroll carefully from 1900 through to 1938 and observe that the Global Warming trend slowly rose the world average surface temperature. Then World Temperature inexplicitly began to fall through to 1958, despite a progressive 30 year rise in solar activity and the largest Solar Activity Cycle (S19) of the past 250 years. And World Temperature continued to fall for another 20 years beyond 1958 into the late 1970's, DOUBLESS PROVING THAT THE OCEANS WERE NOT RETAINING STORED HEAT for release during the declining cycles of the Sun. And of course, these relationships are all ABOUT AS RANDOMLY OUT OF PHASE AS YOU WILL FIND. Many scientists have also remarked upon the remarkable "disconnection" between this part of human history and the World Temperature trend. During the 1930's through to the 1950's human industrial activity expanded greatly, beyond all historical proportion, to produce a vast outpouring of war goods followed by an enormous outpouring of consumer goods. The most significant sudden increase in human-caused greenhouse gases and CO2 MUST HAVE OCCURRED during these same three decades. If there was ANY RELATIONSHIP between CO2 and World Temperature, IT MUST HAVE PRODUCED A MEASURABLE EFFECT DURING THESE THREE DECADES. But we look in vain...nothing appears. According to this evidence, the world climatology models have it bass ackwards. These trend lines clearly show (facetiously) that in actuality an increase in CO2 PRODUCES GLOBAL COOLING. Now examine carefully the trend lines from 1976 through to the 2004. During what looks like a brief "in-phase" moment during 1976 through to 1980, while both cycles are rising, World Temperature begins a "cycle" of progressive increase which is more rapid than before. But after 1980, the Solar Activity cycle is clearly declining. All this obviously defeats the argument that the Solar Activity Cycle, or some component in the activity of the Sun, is driving Global Warming. With only a moment of contemplation, this also decisively defeats CO2 and other greenhouse gases as a reflected, indirect source of Global Warming. The decline in average solar luminous and ionic output must mean, can only mean, that there is less heat to reflect. The accelerating increase in Global Warming since 1960 simply cannot be sourced from the diminishing quantity of reflected heat. The small amount of increase in greenhouse gases cannot overcome the huge swings in solar output through each cycle and from cycle to cycle. The accumulated downward trend which has predominated during the past 30 years simply goes in the wrong direction and this contradiction cannot be overcome by wishing upon a global warming model. The most important "other trend" which might have relevance in overcoming the contradiction is the "Warming of the World Ocean". Conceivably, though we cannot see any obvious evidence of it, the World Ocean might be able to store heat in such a way to produce the current trends. Accordingly, we need to look at the trend line for Ocean Heating, below.
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400 Years Of Solar Observations
1600-2000 line plot in web page landscape orientation by Robert A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art Project (at Wikipedia) http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers.png sunspots_trendline_1600-2000.png The expanded graph (above) is a little too expanded to provide a quick overview in which to grasp the trends we have found. This graph below composed by Robert A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art Project., gives us the past 400 years in one view.
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Solar Irradiance &
Sunspot Correlation 1975-2005 composite line plots webpage in landscape orientation by Robert A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art Project http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations.png filename: solar_activity_1975-2005.png
FROM GLOBAL WARMING ART: "This picture depicts the last three solar cycles as measured in solar irradiance, sunspot numbers, solar flare activity, and 10.7 cm radio flux. Solar irradiance, i.e the direct solar power at the top of the Earth's atmosphere, is depicted as both a daily measurement (shown in yellow) and as a moving annual average (shown in red). All other data are depicted as the annual average value." Although irradiance measurements (taken at the top of the Earth's atmosphere) have been made only since 1978, enough is now known about the Sun to use the Sunspot Cycle as a direct measure of over all solar output for understanding the balance of Earth's heat.
This chart shows how tight the integration of solar output really is. This chart also shows that we have a "Solar Cooling Trend". By comparing this chart with others, we can see that this trend may run yet for another 30 to 40 years.
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Carbon 14 - Solar Activity Cycle
Correlation 900 CE - 1950 web page in landscape orientation by USGS carbon-14_1100bp-current.png Image source: "The Sun and Climate: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0095-00", Version 1.0 http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/ By using the understanding we gain in the "Solar Irradiance Correlation" chart above, we can vastly expand the horizons of our understanding of the Changes In The Earth. By using correlations between tree rings, Carbon14 deposits, and the Sunspot Cycle, scientists have been able to push back the "history" of Solar Activity by at least 10 thousand years. The two charts below demonstrate two long periods of time and reveal many interesting periodicities in Solar Activity which shed some light on practically everything of importance concerning the Changes In The Earth.
Radiocarbon, called Carbon14, is produced in Earth's upper atmosphere from the combination of atmospheric nitrogen (Nitrogen14) with neutrons from outer space (so-called cosmic rays). The more cosmic rays strike the Nitrogen14, the more Carbon14, it is that simple. Why the variation then? One factor now being used by climatologists is the "solar wind" and the Solar Activity Cycle. The solar atmosphere (very high energy ionic plasma of electrons and protons) refracts cosmic rays away from the inner planets and thus reduces the production of Carbon14 in Earth's atmosphere. The greater the Solar Activity (Sunspot Count) the less Carbon14. It is pretty much that simple, atmospheric scientists believe. How do we get a record of it? Trees absorb the Carbon14 and use it in the construction of their growth "rings" . By analysing the amount of Carbon14 per unit of tree ring (the radioactivity thereof) and by counting the number of tree rings, graphs such as this one above (and below) can be constructed. Various comparisons have been made by scientists around the world and there is a strong consensus on the suitability of this type of correlation with the Solar Cycle. This chart and the following one was constructed by USGS scientific staff from findings in well established scientific literature. In the 1100 Year Chart, the numbers for the amount of Carbon14 have been reversed from the normal type of graph plot. The negative numbers are on the top of the scale. This means that the upswings in the plot show the increase in Solar Activity. With this we have a "approximate" history of the Sunspot Cycle. We must heavily qualify the approximation because there is not a simple 1:1 correlation between the annual average sunspot count and the uptake of Carbon14 in any given tree. In fact, it has taken scientists a long chain of reasoning to conclude that there is about a 20-60 year lag in the uptake relationship. That is a significant lag and it has a huge variation, which leaves us a fuzzy connection. First the carbon14 must sink into the land or the water, it must get wet and migrate down into the root, and thence it must be absorbed into the tree. In the meantime it must not get high-jacked by a long drought period, or by too many La Nina's, blocked by volcanic eruptions, or applied too thickly by too many wet El Nino's, and so forth. The problem gets even more complex because scientists for various reasons are using averages based on two year and ten year samples, not simple annual samples. Thus the connection gets even fuzzier. Obviously there are many problems of precision and exact dating of solar events with this method but nonetheless it appears to offer an objective lens for looking into the long past so long as we do not attempt great precision. A look at the last 1100 years shows us that as of about 50 years ago (remember S19 in 1958) Solar Activity had reached a peak level which had been, or nearly so, matched twice before, with many other ups and downs during the centuries. This sharp upward rising trend line looks frightening, hanging in mid air. What this chart does not show (and cannot because of the Carbon14 uptake lag) is that since circa mid 20th century, Solar Activity has declined somewhat, making the current "wave" in the trend line somewhat more like the previous "waves". By looking closely at this 1100 year perspective, we can see clear evidence of at least two profoundly important cycles. We have doubtless approximately 100 year and a 200 year cycles which appear. On both the 100 and 200 year cycles, we appear to be near the point where the Solar Activity Cycle should once again progressively decline in the forthcoming century into a generally lower level of activity. Exactly when that decline should begin in these long time frames is somewhat fuzzy. Thus some serious mathematical analysis ought to be done on this topic. It may well be that we are already in such a period of decline, it may have begun some time after the 200 year Solar MAX of S19 of 1958.
Carbon 14 - Solar Activity Cycle
Correlation 10,000 BP - 1950 What a difference a change in perspective makes! This reconstruction by USGS reveals some stunning information about Solar Activity during the past 10,000 years. However, it is regrettably reverse of the previous chart. In this chart we have the Sunspot Cycle shown in reverse. To correct this problem, I have flipped the chart and this new version is shown immediately below the first one.
Flipped Version - Solar Activity Cycle Shown In The Upswings
This chart tells us that even though we are probably now entering into a 100 year downswing to complete a 200 year cycle, we are still, throughout this entire 200 year cycle, at high levels of Solar Activity compared to five to ten thousand years ago. In other words, do not expect Solar Activity to sink below what we have been experiencing for the past two hundred years or so. One wonders what the Solar Activity levels were in, say, 6000 BP. Most non-American archeologists would now agree that the set-point for most of the ancient civilizations in Egypt, Sumeria, the Indus, and China had already occured by 5000 BP and were probably in their formative stage throughout much of the period shown on this chart when Solar Activity was lower than the current age. It may be that solar-induced climate was more stable from 10,000-5000 BC, conditions thus more moderate from decade to decade, permitting the slow gradual accumulation of civilization. Of particular interest is that the drive to regional Empire in this Age of Man first entered the historical record, at least in Egypt, just prior to 5000 BP with the first Pharaoh of record, at about the same time the Maya began their current count of time in their elaborate calendar system. According to the charts above, these "set points" in human culture occurred after several hundred years of large oscillations in average Solar Activity superimposed on a long 2000 year progressive increase. Perhaps the shifting climate and more extreme weather regimes required the precursor civilizations on the River Deltas to "get their act together" to deal on a systemic, long-term basis with shifting environmental extremes. When spectral analysis (FFT) is performed on the numbers which form this splendid graph, the following peak spectral peaks (frequencies for cycles) appear:
Carbon 14 - Solar Activity 2000
Year Cycle Correlation If mathematical Ozian Wands are waved over the 10,000 Year Carbon14 Chart to remove the "trend of increase", a 2000 year (or so) cycle appears. This is demonstrated in the chart below. The only point of this chart is to reveal what the trend of increase conceals, namely that another long cycle in solar output can be identified.
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The 88 Year & 200
Hundred Year Cycles line plot web page in landscape orientation by M. A. Vukcevic, M.Sc solarcycle_100yr_vuksevic_2007_los_alamos.jpg This graph may help to show were the current trend in Solar Activity is heading. Looking historically since 1800 at an averaged and mathematically smoothed plot of Solar MAX levels, [M.A. Vukcevic: "Evidence Of A Multi Resonant System Within Solar Periodic Activity", 2007; http://xxx.lanl.gov/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0401/0401107.pdf ]
We appear to be headed toward a new trough which repeats the troughs of the early 1800's and era of 1910. Using only this chart as a guide, we would be inclined to predict that the next Solar Cycle (S24) will be smaller even than our last one (S23) and that by 2020 or so, the cycle will have bottomed, bringing us thereafter to another 40 years of rising Solar Cycles and another strong spurt of Global Warming to counteract the chilling years of 2000-2020. The previous chart by xxxx suggests a longer cycle of chilling, perhaps an 100 year plunge to accommodate the creation of a low for the 200 xxxx year cycle. But perhaps the next Solar Cycle is going up, way up... Some very interesting science prediction work is making this claim, as can be seen in the following graph.
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Other Charts & Graphs & Documents Jan Alvestad's Daily Solar Activity Chart THIS IS ONE OF THE BEST
GRAPHS ON THE ENTIRE WEB
Ocean Warming Trend 1957-1998 (data by Levitus et al, 2005)
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