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BOOK TWO
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Chapter 18
-
Cayce’s Objective Predictions

World Conditions and Trends

 

This sample text originated from the first edition in 2000.  Changes and corrections were made to approximately half of all pages. To purchase this book in e-book (Open Document PDF format) or as a paperback or hardbound book, click on Cosmic Catalog.

 

 

From The Veil (Book One)

The Quest began in "Book One: The Veil" with a serious examination of Edgar Cayce’s famous psychic reading transcripts and an assortment of biographies on his life. I was determined to make a serious estimate of the competence, integrity, and validity of Cayce’s psychic descriptions about the past, present, and future. I started by looking for the fruit of clairvoyance directly in Cayce’s life. If his psychic talent was so good, must there not be some evidence of that talent directly in the man’s life?

I could not find economic results, Cayce died with very little money after many failed projects. But I did find significant indications of the validity of his efforts. He was and is world famous still 45 years after his death. Dozens of prominent people who knew him continued to provide support for him and his work out of simple gratitude for the value they believed they had received from Cayce’s efforts. His health oriented readings had greatly seeded and stimulated the emergence of the holistic and naturopathic health movement in North America and his influence continues on in the medical field in many ways. Not least, I found three serious examinations of his work which attested to its validity, one of which was the testimony of David Kahn, Cayce’s life long friend who knew him intimately. Kahn’s testimony was especially telling since he wrote it gratuitously at the end of his wealthy life with no expectation of monetary gain.

The Quest then undertook to explore the body of Cayce’s work, the collection of some 15,000 readings on the Cayce/Davis CD. If this psychic was so well documented, would it not be possible to rigorously establish his rate of accuracy for objective events? The medical material may have great validity, perhaps as high as the 85% rating which Hugh Lynn Cayce had given it after many years of study. But the value of the figure for historical events was highly doubtful. Hugh Lynn’s sample was very limited, wasn’t methodologically sound, could not account for the factor of free will in applying Cayce’s readings, and was limited only to the health readings. What value did that figure have for the Earth Change predictions? I wanted a hard score with which I could assign a confidence probability for Cayce’s pole shift prediction. Based on the past performance of Cayce’s predictions, I wanted to know the probability of one of Cayce’s predictions coming true for geological events. Was his accuracy rate 60%? or 90%, or what? What was the probability that the pole shift prediction would come true? Was is 60%, or 90%, or what?

As I began to work on how to answer this question, I quickly found that I could not understand many of Cayce’s predictions unless I understood their context. I had to understand the nature of the readings and the overall collection. Even more importantly, I could not avoid Cayce’s metaphysics and religious claims, though I resisted dealing with them for a long time. A great many of his predictions were bound up with his sermons and metaphysical notions. I could not understand some of the predictions without understanding these notions.

Thus the Quest undertook to lift "The Veil" by establishing the conceptual and philosophical context for Cayce’s statements. I half expected it to be so nutty, I could simply dismiss the greater part of Cayce’s predictions and go onto something else. I outlined a summary of the readings and a survey of the essence of Cayce’s metaphysics and religion.

After a survey of the metaphysical and occult content in Cayce’s readings, I concluded that Cayce’s metaphysics was almost entirely hermetic and paralleled the elementary basics of many of the concepts and practices which have been taught for the past few millennia in Bharati (India), Egypt, the ancient mystery schools, and the modern so-called secret societies such as the Rosicrucians. There was nothing deterministic or reductionist in Cayce’s thought, it primarily pointed to the synchronicity and underlying unity in all things. He taught no fortune-telling arts, his focus was on the same path as the great yogins, god realization. There was really nothing new or extreme in metaphysics in the Cayce/Davis Collection. I was extremely grateful to find the complete absence of solipsistic cosmological schemes, such as the fantasy toy world of Unarius, or the bottomless intellectual swamp of Blavatsky which drones interminably.

I completed the survey with a radical integration of Cayce’s religiously-oriented statements. To my surprise, I found something entirely beyond the stilted dogmas of xianity. Cayce advised forgetting about the isms, schisms, and doctrines of all traditional religions, xianity included. I came to call Cayce’s tenets the "The God Game" because of his assertive push to work on "god realization". The readings insisted on the radical practice of the golden rule to overcome all religious, political, and racial differences and exclaimed against creating more differences with more ideology. The stale religious fruitcake I half-suspected to find turned out to be entirely sensible. This finding substantially increased my over-all confidence in Cayce’s readings.


The Quest Continues...

Once the context of Cayce’s life and work was established in "The Veil", I found that I could readily decipher most of Cayce’s statements and understand when, where, and what he was predicting in any given instance. I could easily separate his moralizing, warning, and sermonizing from actual pre-cognitive statements about what will come to be. At that point I was ready to finish creating a hard-nosed bottom line figure for Cayce’s clairvoyance.

As I began to assemble Cayce's comments about the earth changes and the millennium, I noticed that for every objective geological prediction there were a 100 or more objective economic, business, or political predictions. These predictions were about actual events in human history, forecasting revolutions, wars, the collapse of the stock market, the destiny of Russia, trends in individual stocks, and so on. It soon occurred to me that I could create an outline of Cayce’s "future history" by creating a systematic inventory of every one of these predictions about objective events. Then I could objectively score them by going to the library and determining whether or not the predicted events had occurred. When I was finished I could add up Cayce's "hits" and "errors", from which I could easily compute his "batting average".

So I began my search through the Cayce/Davis Collection, slowly hacking out the business, economic, and political predictions while researching the more interesting material, such as Cayce's story of Egypt and the periodic changes in the Earth which must come again. These human events predictions, like the earth changes predictions and the story of Egypt, are scattered throughout the personal and topical readings...except that there are a lot more of them.

It took six months of work to mine this material and organize it to do the verification research. For the most part, digesting the economic, business, and political commentary was a monumental task of the worst kind - endlessly boring. The raw material of passages from Cayce ran several hundred pages, more than enough for me to virtually choke on. But that was only the beginning of the work. Then I had to spend another six months to analyze, sort, and select what was an objectively verifiable prediction. I soon discovered that I was constantly working the Cayce/Davis CD, going back to the source document to insure that I understood the context of the statements. Occasionally, I could not determine whether or not a statement was a prediction, or just what the statement was predicting, without analyzing the entire reading. In some cases, I had to analyze an entire series of readings for an individual to understand the connection of some of the statements.

To make a long story short, I discovered the Iron Law of Context for Cayce’s comments. Many of the predictions in different readings are directly connected. They support and modify each other in ways which are not at all apparent when seen only in isolation. There is a seamless unity to them and some of the content is very difficult to properly understand in an isolated passage unless the context of the larger mosaic is seen.

As my ability to see the mosaic evolved, I began to catch myself attempting to misapply some of Cayce’s predictions. What seemed like an earth change prediction was actually a very narrow prediction about war, or what I had initially assumed was a political prediction was actually an observation about economic trends, and so on. And then I began to catch practically all of those who have written about Cayce’s comments of doing the same thing. I found them confusing some of Cayce’s God Game rhetoric with precognitive predictions, or mistaking the context for the time frame of a prediction, etc. Finally, I threw away all of my notes about what other people had said Cayce had predicted. The notes for the most part were useless. The only things that mattered were Davis’ indexes and the iron law of context.

As I began to organize Cayce’s material and trowel it into the historical mosaic, some pieces suddenly took on profound meaning, rewarding me for months of grinding patience. Voila! Some of the greatest predictions Cayce ever made, completely unnoticed for 60 years, suddenly appeared in front of my eyes as I wrestled obscurely with the likes of the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages. What had seemed at first blush as possibly an exercise in numerology, cast inside of badly fractured grammar, was an exact specification within one point of when the stock market would crash to end the dynastic age and begin the great depression. It was only after three years of porpoising through the Cayce/Davis CD that I found and understood this one prediction, which, all by itself, is almost all you really need to know about the accuracy of Edgar Cayce’s clairvoyance. No human being, no known science, and no mega-machine could have made the prediction. It’s impossible! Even more impossible is "coincidence". And that’s just one of others of the same caliber which began to stare out at me from the Cayce mosaic.

This "crash" prediction is typical in the way in which some of Cayce’s profound predictions have lain so obscure. At first I thought it was a prediction about Montgomery Ward stock going up to 385, along with a prediction about rail stocks going down. I dutifully looked through microfilm rolls of the Wall Street Journal looking for the daily stock quotations. Soon enough it was obvious that the prediction was wrong. Montgomery Ward stock was generally around a 100 the year before and not much better than 150 at the time of the prediction and thereafter. I annotated it as failed and then studied the prediction to see what to do with the rails prediction. It suddenly occurred to me that, because of the bad grammar, I had misinterpreted it completely.

So I re-read the entire reading and it dawned on me that it was in essence an interpretation of dream images for Morton Blumenthal. Blumenthal dreamed Montgomery Ward, but Cayce interpreted that as a symbol for the entire stock market. It was not Montgomery Ward, it was the entire market which would go up to "near 385" and then begin a long decline. When read properly, the prediction contained three specific criteria which would demonstrate when the Blumenthals would know that the end of the bull market game had come. The prophecy, besides being the most historically stunning, was the most specific and accurate prediction in the entire Cayce/Davis collection. No one else has ever remarked upon it and I had nearly labeled it as failed.


The Future History

From these experiences I slowly realized that the value which could be added by my personal Quest was more than coming up with a "score" for Cayce’s accuracy, though that was a very important objective. I began to see that a great part of my unique value-added could be in creating an accurate context for the predictions, an historical mosaic against which their proper application and fulfillment could be objectively seen. Only in this way could I hope to convey the solid substance of Cayce’s score and remember why I had concluded that a prediction had failed, or was fulfilled. Not the least, the mosaic might demonstrate exactly what predictions remained to be fulfilled and how they might interconnect.

As I developed the mosaic, I necessarily found myself reorganizing it time and time again to reflect yet another higher level of discovery and synthesis. To my despair I began to realize that I simply could not reduce the task to a linear path of writing and finishing a book along a thesis. I did not know what the thesis of the mosaic was, I had to discover it by looking into the images which were painted into it. It was rather like painting the ceiling of the Cistine Chapel, color by color without knowing what images and story line Michaelangelo had in mind. Try as I might to do otherwise to satisfy my initial subscribers, the second book of the trilogy had to be virtually finished before I could complete the second chapter of the first book. And a good part of what was the first book, became the third book. More than once I felt like I was writing the entire trilogy backwards while sincerely attempting to write just the first damn book.

I began, like everyone else, by treating all of Cayce’s statements and predictions as random tidbits of information on various topics but the more I wrestled with the meanings and interconnections between Cayce’s passages, the more they began to organize and then reorganize themselves into distinct stories.

When all of his statements about a topic were brought together and placed in a timeline against the actual backdrop of history, they told a story about the topic or subject. Soon I had several distinct stories about just the 20th century, such as "The Great Break-up of 1936", which foretold the story of the fall of dynastic imperialism and advent of the "World On Fire" (World War II) and "The Great Leveling" which would come afterwards to elevate and equalize the common people of all nations and races. All of the predictions Cayce made were a part of these stories or plot lines and he deliberately interconnected many of his statements and predictions into these stories by his word choices and the references he sometimes made across a span of up to 30 years.

As the stories began to emerge, the attunement, accuracy, and scope of Cayce’s work took on a new dimension. Nearly as amazing as his "near 385" prediction was my discovery that it was part of a story which began in 1924. During that year, Cayce’s readings predicted the crash of the market after a long bull run during the late 1920’s. During the mid-1920’s he chronicled the rise and fall of the stock market, teaching his clients how to play the bull market and how to prepare for the crash of 1929. He even outlined what growth industries would give them the best long term portfolio after the market reached bottom. Cayce should have been quite well-to-do with endowment from a share of their speculations, but his clients did not pay attention to the readings and blew everything.

The discovery of these stories was exciting. No one had ever seen them or at least no one has ever communicated them. It was even more exciting to discover that Cayce’s greatest clairvoyant "hits" for the most part were not the thousands of individual predictions he made. The best hits were these story lines, which all paralleled with the objective facts of the flow of history, everywhere one looked. Cayce was not just in tune with random aspects of the future, Cayce obviously could sense the entire integrated flow of history.

My main objective was to derive and document scientifically a hard-nosed assessment of Cayce’s demonstrated clairvoyance. Lists and a score would do. But lists could never reveal the consistency the readings have from beginning to end in thought, concept, and facts. Lists could never demonstrate the profoundly powerful vision. Thus, I began to paint the historical context for Cayce’s comments so that they can be seen truly for what they are. I began to think of the individual stories which the various predictions composed as chapters of a Future History.

Many times I groaned and complained to myself about the workload involved in composing the Future History. I had decided to relate Cayce’s statements and life within the broad flow of the actual events and forces on the stage of history. But, like all other aspects of my Quest, this became far more arduous than I had optimistically projected. To organize and compose the stories of the Future History I was forced to deal with all of the major issues and key events of the 20th century. I couldn’t just write it. I had to research and think about each detail. Every damn one. Often times I wondered whether anyone would really read it.

Though I did not intend such an elaborate effort, the work eventually wrote itself, creating a vivid retrospective of the central dynamics of the 20th century. It was formed solely by the need to illuminate Cayce’s statements and it is amazing how comprehensively it covers all the main bases. The predictions and their stories are organized together into topical chapters. Large dollops of history serve as the backdrop for each story and chapter to provide the perspective with which one can determine whether or not Cayce was in tune or whether or not an individual prediction failed.

Within the Future History, many seemingly obscure statements suddenly can be seen to be right on the pulse of the times. And some statements can be seen to have been badly abused by various writers and quoters, endlessly misinterpreted by "loosing" the proper context in which they were intended. One of the main "lost" contexts is the "appropriate" time frame. Some of Cayce’s comments were intended to refer to a narrow scope of time, but some of these "narrow-casts" are applied by writers as all purpose "wide-casts" to refer to a wide number of extraneous events, or even as prophecy yet to be fulfilled. A few of the most common of these misapplications I have pointed out.

As I researched it, I could not help but get caught up in the history of the 20th century and that had an unexpected personal dimension. It is impossible to seriously overview the 20th century without having one’s paradigms profoundly shifted. The truths which we grow up with in school and from the media are often wide of the mark, embarrassingly ignorant scraps of rumors which sustain themselves only because we hardly ever look at the whole fabric of the human drama.

As has been oft observed, we cannot understand our future unless we have understood the past. This is a difficult injunction to make to most people most of the time, they are so caught up in their parochial concerns and issues. They sustain their fixations with the illusion that their parochialism is the key to their present momentum and success. They are not wrong, per se, parochial focus serves the short run of affairs very well, but it is never sufficient for the longer run of events. Never. The injunction to understand the past is starkly imperative for the larger scheme of affairs, and this is more likely than not to be true especially for the first decade of the 21st century.

The Future History serves like a scryer’s mirror or crystal in which images of the past can form up and reveal the dynamics, trends, and tendencies of both the present and the future. In the center of the mirror one finds the image of the 1929-1945 era, to which Cayce devoted the greater part of his prophetic energy. This sixteen year moment in time was the transition point from one long human age to another, the defining moment when nothing worked as it had and fundamental mass change was the absolute necessity. In that brief era of time one finds in full dress parade every conceivable human reaction and tendency, behavior, ideology, platform, illusion, lunacy, and brutality, which collectively culminated in the universal war, the World On Fire. There is scarcely an aspect of the present which was not shaped by that 14 year period of time, it is easy to find the ghosts...everywhere one looks.

The Future History became my personal scrying lens about how my own life related to the broad dynamics of the 20th century and the beginning of the next one.. The remaining confusions in my own life about the prevailing economic circumstances, cliques, political and religious movements, and social issues dropped away. I began to appreciate more exactly what my experience really was and how it related to the flow of history. Most especially welcome, the perennial humbug of many self-serving, self-renewing cliques came to be seen with much sharper edges, the easier to mark for quick disposal. It became more obvious to me that Americans are still badly infected with much too large a load of primitive right wing garbage masquerading as progressive thought-nouveau. I could see more clearly that it insidiously infects far too much of what Americans do and why they must continue to struggle with many of the same issues which they have refused to resolve since the advent of the industrial age. It became much easier to understand why other peoples and nations, especially in Europe, are moving to the forefront of leadership in many areas of human activity.

The Future History can serve as the scrying lens for seeing dynamic parallels for the year 2001. It may be a powerful tool for understanding the implications of the Change In The Earth prophecies and putting their nuances into the right perspective. By the year 2001 conditions in the world may parallel the conditions of 1932. Worse, many physical and organizational modes of operation may cease to function, nothing may work as it has. The economies of the world may collapse as a consequence of the destructions wrought by a pole shift and huge masses may find it very difficult to cope with even the most basic issues of survival. Fundamental mass change may be the absolute common necessity but the physical damage from a pole shift Century 21 may be the least of the problems. Under such circumstances, the political solutions people will seek will parallel all those divergent factions and conflicts which embroiled the world in constant struggle from 1930 through to 1945 during the Great Break-Up.

By looking backwards on the Great Break-Up, we may be seeing a part of our future. Once again, in this new era of time, we will find in full dress parade on the stage of history every conceivable human reaction and tendency, behavior, ideology, platform, illusion, lunacy, and brutality, all jostling and militantly contending to inherit and survive with what ever remains. Hopefully we can learn from the lessons of the Great Break-Up how to overcome the least desirable aspects of our brutal past.

Accordingly, I commend into your hands this "Future History". I believe that it will be well worth your time searching for your reflection in the mosaic’s mirror. In the next chapter, Cayce’s Future History is compactly summarized to provide a quick overview of the mosaic. In the chapters which follow, each prediction is set within an historical context along with the data which demonstrates its fulfillment or failure.

The validation of Cayce’s objective economic and political predictions about the 20th century, are presented in these chapters of "Book Two: The Great Break-Up". Cayce’s changes in the earth predictions are presented along with a part of the story of the World Epic in "Book Three: The Prophecies".

What follows now in the remainder of this chapter is the bottom line of the Future History: Cayce’s score.


The Scoreboard  (see Table 200 below)

What is the hard nosed bottom line for Cayce’s precognitive ability? In one word, phenomenal! For long-term "word-class" historical events of all kinds, Cayce’s accuracy ranged between 84% and 96%, and currently averages out at 92%. Interestingly enough, the score is in the same ball park as the 85% score Hugh Lynn Cayce established many years ago for Cayce’s health readings. It is highly doubtful that any psychic, past or present in the 20th century has ever come remotely close to matching Cayce’s accuracy.

Cayce’s accuracy is still of great interest and profound importance because of some 45 pending predictions he made about the Change In The Earth, not the least of which is his prediction of a shift in the pole during Century 21. Cayce also left hundreds of archeological clues about ancient ruins in Central and South America, Egypt, Persian, Gobi desert and other locations, as well as clues to possible scientific discoveries.

 


Table 200:
Accuracy of Edgar Cayce’s Long-Term Precognition and Clairvoyance

Based on verification of 253 (N) objective historical predictions and descriptions;
N = net predictions F=failed P= fulfilled PEN=pending
Compiled & copyright 1999 by MW Mandeville
For the key to the columns and notations, look for "Notations" at the end of this section.

CH.

TYPE OF PREDICTION

TOT

R

U

A

N

F

P

PEN

SCORE

  Long Term Descriptions:

22

Long General Stock Market

48

6

4

9

29

1

28

0

96.55%

23

Total Economic

90

12

3

12

63

4

58

1

93.55%

M

Total World Political

199

21

7

90

81

6

72

3

92.31%

M

Total Earth Changes

167

33

32

35

67

6

32

29

84.21%

42

Total Change In the Earth

53

10

0

30

13

0

1

12

100.00%

  CAYCE’S HARD SCORE

557

82

46

176

253

17

191

45

91.83%

 

The accuracy of Cayce’s predictions varied according to the topic, subject, and the length of time involved. Table 200 shows his accuracy rate with four different types of historical events. His greatest accuracy was in calling the trends of the volatile stock market of the 1920’s and 1930’s, with which he was 96% correct for 29 predictions.. His accuracy was nearly as good in predicting 126 economic and political events. His lowest accuracy was in describing earth change events, where his accuracy rate was only 84%.

The scores are possible only because all of Cayce’s psychic statements were rigorously documented, indexed and preserved. The scores were reached after four years of research by examining, analyzing, and researching every specific statement Cayce made in his 15,000 readings about material historical events or general phenomenon. Only those statements which were materially specific enough to objectively match with actual events and scientific knowledge were verified and used to calculate Cayce’s accuracy.

All of Cayce’s statements had to meet the test of objectivity to became a candidate for testing. To be purely objective, a prediction must be about impersonal material affairs and events, and it must describe a specific, tangible outcome in enough unique detail to identify the occurrence or non-occurrence of a specific historical event. The event must also be of enough magnitude that historical and scientific records can give witness to whether or not the predicted events occurred.

To be considered a clairvoyant or precognitive prediction, the statement had to predict a specific, tangible event or phenomenon which could not be guessed or inferred from prevailing patterns, probabilities, or relationships in the way the world normally works. For instance, guessing that a noticeable earthquake will occur in California next year is not a prediction. It is highly probable. Predicting that a noticeable earthquake will occur in San Diego during July is not a guess. Such an event is not probable within any one month period in San Diego, even though it is earthquake country.

Some of Cayce’s statements failed to meet this elementary test and they were left in the Unverified or Advisory columns. Each fulfillment and non-occurrence was counted and from these an objective material score was computed. The ratio between them is the measure of confidence for Cayce: 50% would mean that he was even odds, 66% would make a somewhat guarded confidence, because his prediction would succeed two times out of three, 80% is four times out of five, 90% you can bank on 9 out of 10 times.

In the case of Cayce’s clairvoyant comments about the past, the statement had to meet the tests of unknowability and unguessability before it was labeled as clairvoyant or predictive. In other words, only statements which could not have been acquired or borrowed from any other material source were candidates for inclusion in Cayce’s bottom-line score. These had to be proven or disproven by hard empirical science before they were considered verified or failures.

There were a large number of quasi-predictive statements which were too ambiguous to objectively verify and these ended up in the Unverified column. There were also several "the airplane will not crash" or "the airplane may crash sometime" predictions, which were all disqualified from the objective tally. These were all totaled in the Advisory column.

Obviously, this is not a final score for Edgar Cayce. About 18% of Cayce’s objective world-class predictions, some 45, are still pending, and a great many of them are due within the next few years. Thus the actual course of history will have a major impact on Cayce’s final bottom line score. Additionally, there are hundreds of descriptions about what will or could be discovered in Egypt and other locations which could radically alter his score. Given the probabilities, based on the past performance of Cayce’s predictions, it is likely that Cayce’s score will continue to rise.

All of the predictions which are summarized in Table 200 are composed into the "Future History" in the chapters which follow. The Future History provides a retrospective vision on the 20th century as well as a vision about the way history will unfold during the early part of the 21st century.

Most of the statements which are summarized in Table 200 are precognitive, they predicted future events. But some of the statements were descriptions about past Earth Change events and the evolution of the human species. These are technically clairvoyant statements, which are generally considered to be from a different psychic ability than precognition. Some degree of clairvoyance can be found widely in the human species. But proven precognition, consistently making successful predictions for outcomes which cannot be guessed from knowledge about the way the world works, is very rare. Within the framework of the Trilogy, Cayce’s clairvoyant statements are considered to be predictions about what will be found to be true about various topics or events. In other words, for the purposes of the Trilogy, both types of statements are handled as if they are the same.

Technically, the error rate in Cayce’s clairvoyant statements about the remote past of the Earth was nearly twice as great as his error rate with future Earth events. But this is an illusionary relationship. All three of these clairvoyant errors were related to trivial issues of inconsistent dates, nothing substantive. Nonetheless, my hard-nosed approach to the statistics penalized Cayce’s score heavily for those trivial errors.

The bottom line scores in Table 200 are for long-term predictions of six months or more. Cayce also made many short term predictions, typically a few days to a few weeks and his accuracy with these was often much lower. His accuracy also varied considerably in accordance with the relevance of free will. In situations involving short terms affairs and the exercise of free will by a small number of people, Cayce’s error rate increased dramatically.

The influence of these factors on Cayce’s accuracy can be seen in Table 201. Cayce’s long-range predictions about the general trends in the over all stock market was 96% but his accuracy for short-term predictions (generally less than 30 days) was only 77%., giving him an overall average of 90% for general trends. When Cayce made specific predictions about specific stocks, the great majority of which were short term speculative plays, Cayce’s accuracy plunged to 53%, seemingly little better than chance. This most like reflects the speculative play of free will in the short term overcoming the market trends.

The stock market in the 1920’s, during which Cayce made most of his stock predictions, was miniscule in size compared to today. The market was almost completely unregulated and brokers could and did constantly manipulate the market to run stock up or down for quick fleecing of the uninformed. The wills of only a handful of people had the ability to change individual prices suddenly. The edge Cayce gave his clients with his predictions on their stock questions was considerably better than chance, the main failure of the predictions was simply that the stocks didn’t rise like he called them. His advice seldom lost money, but as often as not, it made no money. But this edge was enough, millions were created for a few people, at least on paper. Eventually they lost it by not paying attention to his warnings. For a more complete discussion of the Stock Market Predictions, see Chapter 22 in "The Great Break-Up".

The clear and obvious pattern here is simple. The shorter in time the perspective is, the less accurate is the precognition. The more narrow the theatre, where free will comes more dominant, the less accurate the precognition. The longer in time the perspective is, or the broader in scope the theatre, the greater the accuracy becomes, approaching 100%. On scientific concepts and technology trends, Cayce’s accuracy was 100% (see Table 203).

We can see from this elementary pattern that we have found at least one of the limits to pre-cognition, even if supported by an impressive army of intelligence from "third party" on the "other side" and/or elsewhere. Apparently human free will in the short term is too spontaneous in its effects and manipulations to see outcomes precisely. But in the longer run of things, the human herd moves in predictable patterns, the longer the frame of reference, the more predictable the outcome.

What does this suggest about psychic fortune telling for the destinies of individuals? Perhaps that is why Cayce never gave "fortune-telling" or "destiny" readings.

The influence of free will on Cayce’s ability to call the future is most likely seen as well in the accuracy of his political predictions. His 92% accuracy rate for political events was in keeping with his overall average. In some theatres of politics, Cayce was never wrong. But his failures in the political predictions clearly demonstrate both the power and the limits of precognition. His failures in his long term predictions about political affairs were connected with events which involved the decisions and actions of just a few key people.

His political precognition failed essentially three times, once against the choices made by Mussolini regarding Italy’s imperialism (The Great Break-Up), three times connected with the assassination plots against Hitler (World On Fire), and twice against the wills and actions of Chiang Kai-shek, Mao-Tse-Tung, and the Chinese people after World War II (King’s Chamber).

 


Table 201:

Accuracy of Edgar Cayce’s Precognition of Objective Economic & Political Events

N = net predictions F=failed P= fulfilled PEN=pending
Compiled & copyright 1999 by MW Mandeville
For the key to the columns and notations, look for "Notations" at the end of this section.

CH.

TYPE OF PREDICTION

TOT

R

U

A

N

F

P

PEN

SCORE

General Stock Market Predictions

22

Long General Stock Market

48

6

4

9

29

1

28

0

96.55%

22

Short General Stock Market

18

0

0

0

18

4

14

0

77.78%

Total General Market Predictions

66

6

4

9

47

5

42

0

89.36%

Individual Stock Picks

22

Stock Picks – Blumenthal et al

62

10

2

2

48

23

25

0

52.08%

22

Stock Picks – Kahn

11

1

0

1

9

5

4

0

44.44%

22

Subtot Chapter 22 sample stocks

73

11

3

3

56

28

28

0

50.00%

18

Subtot Chapter 18 sample stocks

4

0

0

0

4

0

4

0

100.00%

Total Sample Individual Stocks

77

11

3

3

60

28

32

0

53.33%

All Stock Market Predictions

22

Total General Market Predictions

66

6

4

9

47

5

42

0

89.36%

M

Total Sample Individual Stocks

77

11

3

3

60

28

32

0

53.33%

Total All Stock Market

143

17

7

12

107

33

74

0

69.16%

Business & Economic

21

Total Dreams & Schemes

12

0

3

6

3

2

1

0

33.33%

23

Total Economic Predictions

90

12

3

12

63

4

58

1

93.55%

World Political Predictions

24

Total American Politics

37

2

2

18

15

0

15

0

100.00%

25

Total Two Destinies

20

3

1

8

8

0

6

2

100.00%

26

Total Great Break-Up

20

0

0

6

14

1

13

0

92.86%

27

Total Hitler Reading

19

1

0

17

1

0

1

0

100.00%

28

Total Cross of Greed

30

7

3

9

11

0

11

0

100.00%

29

Total World On Fire

45

6

0

18

21

3

18

0

85.71%

30

Total King's Chamber

28

2

1

14

11

2

8

1

80.00%

Total World Political Predictions

199

21

7

90

81

6

72

3

92.31%

 


Table 202:

Accuracy of Edgar Cayce’s Long Term Clairvoyance & Precognition of Earth Changes

Based on verification of 67(N) objective historical predictions and descriptions;
N = net predictions F=failed P= fulfilled PEN=pending
Compiled & copyright 1999 by MW Mandeville
For the key to the columns and notations, look for "Notations" at the end of this section.

CH.

TYPE OF PREDICTION

TOT

R

U

A

N

F

P

PEN

SCORE

Geology/Paleohistory Predictions

32

Total The Ancient Earth Changes

47

5

22

1

19

3

12

4

80.00%

34

Total Correlations In The Motions

2

0

1

1

0

0

0

0

0.00%

36

Total The Early Earth Changes

29

14

1

3

11

0

8

3

100.00%

37

Total The Earth Change Muddles

36

4

7

18

7

2

3

2

60.00%

38

Total The Earth Change Omens

21

2

1

7

11

1

2

8

66.67%

39

Totals Verification of the Omens

9

0

0

1

8

0

7

1

100.00%

40

Total The Shifting Of The Poles

23

8

0

4

11

0

0

11

0.00%

Earth Changes Totals

167

33

32

35

67

6

32

29

84.21%

Change In The Earth Prophecy

38/39

Total Earth Change Omens

30

2

1

8

19

1

9

9

90.00%

com

Total Pole Shift Statements

27

9

5

2

11

1

8

2

88.89%

42

Total Change In The Earth

53

10

0

30

13

0

1

12

100.00%

 

Table 202 summarizes all of Cayce’s comments related to paleohistory, geology and Earth Changes. These are perhaps the most relevant figures for the future. Cayce made 67 verifiable statements, 19 of which were clairvoyant observations about the past and 38 which were precognitive predictions about the future (from the date of the giving). Twenty-nine of these are still pending and these are all related to a shifting of the pole during Century 21.

His average accuracy for the physical geo-history and future was 84%, some 8 points lower than his hard score for all predictions. This lower accuracy reflects six errors, three of which were for trivial dating errors about the ancient past. The other three errors were more indicative. Two errors were for events he forecast in 1934. One error was for an event he predicted in 1969, the rising of portions of the ancient island of Poseidia in the vicinity of the Bimini Islands.

It is probably more useful to assess Cayce’s accuracy for Earth Changes by analyzing the type of prediction. Cayce made 11 objective predictions or statements about pole shifts (the motion and location of the pole) which could be verified and with these his accuracy was 89%. He made 19 objective predictions about long term changes in the earth for the period 1958 through to the early portion of Century 21. His accuracy so far is 90% for these predictions, with nearly half of them still pending for the pole shift. From these figures, I conclude that there is an 89% probability that Cayce’s pole shift prediction will be fulfilled with an actual pole shift event during Century 21.

Table 203 provides other slices from the verification data which is summarized on Tables 200-202. I note that Cayce’s accuracy with Kahn’s stock picks was only about 62%, which tells us that Kahn exaggerated a bit when he said that Cayce was never wrong. Cayce sometimes was wrong. But not about science and technology. Never. He presented several notions, which eventually became mainstream scientific paradigms. He was 30 years ahead of geologists, oceanographers, the weathermen, and others.

Cayce was also right in the middle of the truth related to ancient history. Though the specific existence of Atlantis is not yet proven, all of the ancient parallels and connections which Cayce maintained could be found between various cultures have in fact been found. Long before scholars understood that the core of the religions of Egypt, Maya, and Bharati were based on the stars and all paralleled each other in many of their details, Cayce had outlined it all. Since this arena of knowledge is less than materially objective, I have not added Cayce’s archeo-history "hits" into his score. Except for one, for which he definitely deserves credit. His claimed that the construction of Sphinx and layout of Rostau was aligned with the stars. It wasn’t until 1995 and 1996 that Robert Bauval proved it, and when he did, he proved it in spades.

 


Table 203:
Accuracy of Edgar Cayce’s Clairvoyance & Precognition
On Various Phenomenon

N = net predictions F=failed P= fulfilled PEN=pending
Compiled & copyright 1999 by MW Mandeville
For the key to the columns and notations, look for "Notations" at the end of this section.

CH.

TYPE OF PREDICTION

TOT

R

U

A

N

F

P

PEN

SCORE

Various Slices

42

Century 21 Other Than Earth Changes

22

0

0

15

7

0

0

7

0.00%

N1

Inferred Science Predictions

21

3

0

0

18

0

15

3

100.00%

N2

Kahn Stock Sample - Chapters 18 + 22

15

1

0

1

13

5

8

0

61.54%

N1

Archeo-History Parallels

5

0

0

0

5

0

5

0

100.00%

N1

Archeo-History Verification

8

0

0

0

8

1

7

0

87.50%

 

All anecdotal predictions or those which involved elaborate activity on the part of the querents to fulfill them were excluded from my hard score. The issue of free will and the skill of those involved in carrying through the clues in the readings was just too difficult to objectively assess. However, in "Dreams & Schemes", I recorded the two failures of a group which tried to locate buried treasure on the basis of Cayce’s readings. They serve as a remainder that Cayce’s readings were not perfect and that their application to any given topic is problematic.

One can wrap oneself within the flag of high-falutin statistical rationalization and find many isolated objections to portions of the predictions which Cayce gave, plausibly arguing in some circumstances that there are other ways to account for at least some of Cayce’s predictive success. Even though I have screened all of the predictions for their probable validity, one could still argue away by various arguments some of the predictions which I have presented in Cayce’s Future History. But the effort would not be very worthwhile. Cayce’s overall hard score would not change much. Cayce created an excellent record for history and I have merely brought it out of the shadows and rigorously defined it for history.

All skeptical "head-trip" objections about Cayce’s predictions will ultimately fail when they meet the wall on which I have painted the entire mosaic of Cayce’s work. There is no way Cayce could have somehow found the luck, or astute intuitive skills, or some unknown fortune-telling art, or intellectual sleight of mind, to achieve the results he did. Even today, after 80 years of development of knowledge about cycles and complex statistical theorems from which mega-computers can crank out predictions, no one can achieve the results which Cayce clearly demonstrated in detailing the rise and fall of the economy and the patterns of recovery. Cayce’s calls on the melt down of the stock market in the great crash of ’29 is simply impossible to explain or predict by any linear means. That it would melt down was obvious to a great many people. To know that it would melt down at 385, accompanied by certain other simultaneous behaviors in the market, is, well, other-worldly.

Sources

For a list of the sources of information which were used to verify Cayce’s predictions, see the Bibliography at the end of the relevant book in the trilogy of "The Return of the Phoenix". These sources are also cited within the context of the various chapters.

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Notations

Return to
Table 200  |  Table 201   |  Table 202  |  Table 203

CH. chapter number of the Phoenix Trilogy where the predictions are quoted
TOT total Cayce statements in the sample, slice, topic, or Phoenix Trilogy chapter
R number of repeats of predictions or duplicate citations
U unverified statements, usually because it was too vague; used for illustration
A sermons, advisory discussions, or context questions; used for illustration
N NET number of verified predictions
F predictions which failed
P PASS: predictions which definitely came true
PEN PENDING: predictions about events which are pending
SCORE accuracy rate of Cayce’s precognition for this sample of statements
M multiple chapters: this slice was created from multiple chapters
N1 incomplete sample: there is no total population which has been determined for this category
N2 defined sample: a sample of a defined population

 

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