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Chapter 22

Cayce & The Stock Market

The Roaring ‘20’s

 

 

 

As I compiled the mosaic of Cayce’s Future History and researched the hundreds of objective predictions which are scattered through his readings, the task which I resisted the most and finished the last was verification of Cayce’s comments about the stock market. Early on in my Quest I had established that Cayce had a high accuracy on general history, but that it was weaker in the stock market. I had easily found some stocks on which Cayce gave bad calls. It seemed important to finish the verification of these stock predictions as it would have an important impact on Cayce’s tally. But the mountain of material was huge, it seemed inherently uninteresting, my brain lobes frequently had seizures attempting to read some of the long-winded fractured grammar, and worse, the data for each individual stock had to be plucked by hand by pouring for days over microfilm of the Wall Street Journal. I did not see how I personally was going to benefit in the slightest from finishing such work.

I almost shoved the stock market material into the black hole of yesterday’s incomplete projects with the idea of relying on Kahn’s witness in "My Life..." and the record I was establishing for Cayce on political history. But I knew that this wasn’t the whole story, I knew that there was a considerable error rate attached to the stock predictions, and I also suspected that Kahn exaggerated. He was, after all, a consummate salesman. I wanted to double check Kahn’s credibility. So I cut and pasted, read microfilm, and built up the historical mosaic to support the predictions. I verified systematically all of the predictions about the general stock market and settled on verifying a randomized sample of predictions about Cayce’s individual stock calls.

The vision which emerged in this portion of the Cayce mosaic became as interesting as the other areas and offered some of the very most outstanding examples of verified prophecy for Cayce’s entire career. Though indeed the individual stock predictions are boring, the composite pattern is astonishing.

In early 1925, Cayce predicted "adverse forces" would hit the financial world in 1929. Through the next four years advised his clients how to profit from the great bull run which led up to the collapse. He consistently described, a month to several months in advance, the shape of the curve of the bull run at several junctures, describing the breaks and the downs as well as the ups. Cayce definitely was not making "airplane" predictions.

Cayce issued a second warning in May 1927 that the bull run would not last and that his clients had two years (to May of 1929) to fulfill their goals, else they would have to start all over again in 1934, which indirectly described the span of the great depression in North America. In late 1928 he correctly advised his clients that political controversies among the bankers and major economic interests would create increasing instabilities in the stock market over the issue of the easy "credit" which was fueling the speculative buying of stocks. He went on to correctly describe in advance the instabilities in the Dow Jones Industrials and the timing of the political controversies during 1929.

In probably the most chilling, spooky prediction in the entire Cayce/Davis Collection, Cayce described, one year in advance, the downturn of the stock market just prior to the crash. He described, within one point of the Dow Jones Industrials, when the market would turn, "near 385", which in fact occurred on September 1, 1929 at 386. He even described correctly other "signals and criterions" when this would occur and mysteriously named the number of the day in which the "indications" of the break would show, near a 26.

In March 1929, Cayce advised his clients to play ultra safe and get ready for a bear market of a very long gradual slide in values. He predicted that the market would continue to advance for "many moons" with increasing instability, then break for a long slide. In April 1929, Cayce added a reasonably good, simplified analysis of the political controversy which had deadlocked control of monetary policy, and warned that a great financial disturbance would result from the deadlock.

Just prior to the crash in October, Cayce defined a master strategy for a new era. He pointed to a fundamental change in the nature of the economy, away from the railroads into the new field of mass communication through radio, telephone, and telegraph. Cayce suggested that stocks could be bought in these fields but only on the basis of conservative price-earnings ratios (which would not have been possible until 1931). These, he told them, would be BOTH the safest, if bought correctly, AND the very best speculative bets because these new industries would grow the fastest. He finished the crash era predictions in October 1929 with an ominous statement about shadows appearing on the present horizon, heralding the dawn of a new social understanding.

After the crash people, lost interest in the stock market and thus the number of stock market predictions decreased dramatically. Even so, Cayce described accurately two brief periods of rallies in the Dow Jones industrials and gave a handful of predictions about short term fluctuations. In 1938 he described quite accurately the long term partial recovery of the rail stocks as well as successfully predicting that the early 1940’s were excellent for long term investors.

The overall record was very good, but not perfect as the following tallies demonstrate:

 

SAMPLE

#

Failed

Ful
filled

Accuracy
Rate

1 Long market predictions
(over 30 days)

29

1

28

96.55%

2 Short market predictions
(less than 30 days)

18

4

14

77.78%

3

TOTAL
General Market Predictions

47 5 42 89.36%

 

4 Stock Picks
- mostly Blumenthal

48

23

25

52.08%

5 Stock Picks - Kahn

13

5

8

61.54%

6

TOTAL
Individual Stocks

60 28 32 53.33%

Adding the totals in lines 3 and 6 together we get:

7

Total
All Stock Market

107

33

74 69.16%

The scores for the individual stock picks are based on the stock which  are cited as follows:

A

Subtot Chapter 21 sample stocks 56 28 29 50.00%
A Subtot Chapter 18 sample stocks 4 0 4 100.00%

Cayce’s predictions about the general stock market, all of which are quoted below, seem to fall fairly easily into two type of predictions, short term predictions for the next few days to a month, and longer term predictions for the next few months to several years. Among the longer term predictions, Cayce’s accuracy rate was 96.55%. Among the short term predictions, Cayce’s accuracy rate was dramatically lower: 77.78%. His overall general market average was 89.36%. There is no known human intelligence or precognition which can create such results. Is there any wonder why the Blumenthals kept coming back for more? Are we dealing solely with a talented psychic? Or are we dealing with something more?

Throughout the readings which contained the predictions about the general stock market, Cayce made numerous calls about individual stocks in which his clients were interested. Nearly all of these predictions were for short term predictions, from a day to a month, sometimes three months. From a random sample of 60 of these predictions, Cayce’s accuracy rate was 53% Even though his individual stock calls failed half the time, his speculative clients could have fared quite well. Only in a few cases would they have lost money, about 40% of the time they would have made nothing and about half the time they would have made money.

The clear and obvious pattern in Cayce’s stock market predictions is simple. The shorter in time the perspective is, the less accurate the precognition. The longer in time the perspective is, the greater the accuracy of clairvoyance becomes, over 95%. There is another pattern as well. The smaller or more individualized the "group" is, the less predictable it is. The larger the group is, the more predictable.

No where else in the Cayce mosaic does this pattern reveal itself but we should not be surprised to find it. Cayce’s metaphysical readings laid it all out explicitly. The years were easy for prophecy, he claimed, but the days and weeks could shift in pattern as humans changed their minds. Speaking of using psychic knowledge about the stock market specifically, Cayce said:

C) ...these become more often detrimental - unless a GENERAL condition is followed, and a GENERAL outlook considered only; for variations must occur, unless activities are followed very closely; for, as has been said - and as given here - the higher forces, or God Himself knows not what a man may do with his own will from day to day!

08/06/32 311-009 /22
METAPHYSICS

When Cayce said "very closely", he also told Mr. 311 that the psychic channel would have to follow the situation hour by hour to foresee all of the flurries of ups and downs which result from the changing expression of human will in the stock market.

I summarized Kahn’s stock picks separately from Blumenthal et al. Cayce’s predictions for Kahn were about 5% more accurate, 61.54%. From this I conclude that Kahn did exaggerate a bit, but not really by much if one keeps in mind that Cayce heavily qualified the notion of using clairvoyance for the individual stock picks, as in his statement above. Kahn most likely attributed the failures to these changing conditions.

We can see from this elementary pattern that Cayce’s work demonstrates very precisely at least one of the limits to precognition, even if that clairvoyance is supported by an impressive army of intelligence from "third party" on the "other side" and/or elsewhere. Apparently human free will in the short term is too spontaneous in its effects and manipulations for any intelligence to see all outcomes precisely. Is there any wonder then why Cayce both personally and in his readings declaimed involvement in "fortune telling". Over and over again he instructed people to exercise their own free will and find expression within "the general patterns". He usually qualified highly individualized, specific predictions with conditionals and the measured results of such predictions clearly demonstrates why. A short term, specific prediction concerning events which involve human will has only slightly better odds than chance.

But in the longer run of things, the human herd moves in predictable patterns, the longer the frame of reference, and the more people involved, the more predictable the outcome. This relationship is clearly seen in the stock predictions but it does not appear so obviously in the predictions about political history since most of them are fairly long range.

Even if the pattern cannot be directly seen in the political history predictions, the small number of errors which appear in Cayce’s political predictions correlate very well with this pattern. He wasn’t wrong very often but when he was wrong, it was about small numbers of people in periods of a few months to a couple of years. (But there in one exception to this generalization, he was wrong about certain events in China).

In the remaining pages of this chapter I have created the historical mosaic for Cayce’s stock predictions. First the general stock market, then followed at the end by a selection of calls from a sample of individual stock picks.


The remainder of this chapter is available as part of an e-book or in a paperback or hardbound book.

This sample text originated from the first edition in 2000.  Changes and corrections were made to approximately half of all pages. To purchase this book in e-book (Open Document PDF format) or as a paperback or hardbound book, click on Cosmic Catalog.

 

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