The Roaring 20s
As I compiled the mosaic of Cayces Future History and researched the hundreds of objective predictions which are scattered through his readings, the task which I resisted the most and finished the last was verification of Cayces comments about the stock market. Early on in my Quest I had established that Cayce had a high accuracy on general history, but that it was weaker in the stock market. I had easily found some stocks on which Cayce gave bad calls. It seemed important to finish the verification of these stock predictions as it would have an important impact on Cayces tally. But the mountain of material was huge, it seemed inherently uninteresting, my brain lobes frequently had seizures attempting to read some of the long-winded fractured grammar, and worse, the data for each individual stock had to be plucked by hand by pouring for days over microfilm of the Wall Street Journal. I did not see how I personally was going to benefit in the slightest from finishing such work.
I almost shoved the stock market material into the black hole of yesterdays incomplete projects with the idea of relying on Kahns witness in "My Life..." and the record I was establishing for Cayce on political history. But I knew that this wasnt the whole story, I knew that there was a considerable error rate attached to the stock predictions, and I also suspected that Kahn exaggerated. He was, after all, a consummate salesman. I wanted to double check Kahns credibility. So I cut and pasted, read microfilm, and built up the historical mosaic to support the predictions. I verified systematically all of the predictions about the general stock market and settled on verifying a randomized sample of predictions about Cayces individual stock calls.
The vision which emerged in this portion of the Cayce mosaic became as interesting as the other areas and offered some of the very most outstanding examples of verified prophecy for Cayces entire career. Though indeed the individual stock predictions are boring, the composite pattern is astonishing.
In early 1925, Cayce predicted "adverse forces" would hit the financial world in 1929. Through the next four years advised his clients how to profit from the great bull run which led up to the collapse. He consistently described, a month to several months in advance, the shape of the curve of the bull run at several junctures, describing the breaks and the downs as well as the ups. Cayce definitely was not making "airplane" predictions.
Cayce issued a second warning in May 1927 that the bull run would not last and that his clients had two years (to May of 1929) to fulfill their goals, else they would have to start all over again in 1934, which indirectly described the span of the great depression in North America. In late 1928 he correctly advised his clients that political controversies among the bankers and major economic interests would create increasing instabilities in the stock market over the issue of the easy "credit" which was fueling the speculative buying of stocks. He went on to correctly describe in advance the instabilities in the Dow Jones Industrials and the timing of the political controversies during 1929.
In probably the most chilling, spooky prediction in the entire Cayce/Davis Collection, Cayce described, one year in advance, the downturn of the stock market just prior to the crash. He described, within one point of the Dow Jones Industrials, when the market would turn, "near 385", which in fact occurred on September 1, 1929 at 386. He even described correctly other "signals and criterions" when this would occur and mysteriously named the number of the day in which the "indications" of the break would show, near a 26.
In March 1929, Cayce advised his clients to play ultra safe and get ready for a bear market of a very long gradual slide in values. He predicted that the market would continue to advance for "many moons" with increasing instability, then break for a long slide. In April 1929, Cayce added a reasonably good, simplified analysis of the political controversy which had deadlocked control of monetary policy, and warned that a great financial disturbance would result from the deadlock.
Just prior to the crash in October, Cayce defined a master strategy for a new era. He pointed to a fundamental change in the nature of the economy, away from the railroads into the new field of mass communication through radio, telephone, and telegraph. Cayce suggested that stocks could be bought in these fields but only on the basis of conservative price-earnings ratios (which would not have been possible until 1931). These, he told them, would be BOTH the safest, if bought correctly, AND the very best speculative bets because these new industries would grow the fastest. He finished the crash era predictions in October 1929 with an ominous statement about shadows appearing on the present horizon, heralding the dawn of a new social understanding.
After the crash people, lost interest in the stock market and thus the number of stock market predictions decreased dramatically. Even so, Cayce described accurately two brief periods of rallies in the Dow Jones industrials and gave a handful of predictions about short term fluctuations. In 1938 he described quite accurately the long term partial recovery of the rail stocks as well as successfully predicting that the early 1940s were excellent for long term investors.
The overall record was very good, but not perfect as the following tallies demonstrate:
Adding the totals in lines 3 and 6 together we get:
The scores for the individual stock picks are based on the stock which are cited as follows:
Cayces predictions about the general stock market, all of which are quoted below, seem to fall fairly easily into two type of predictions, short term predictions for the next few days to a month, and longer term predictions for the next few months to several years. Among the longer term predictions, Cayces accuracy rate was 96.55%. Among the short term predictions, Cayces accuracy rate was dramatically lower: 77.78%. His overall general market average was 89.36%. There is no known human intelligence or precognition which can create such results. Is there any wonder why the Blumenthals kept coming back for more? Are we dealing solely with a talented psychic? Or are we dealing with something more?
Throughout the readings which contained the predictions about the general stock market, Cayce made numerous calls about individual stocks in which his clients were interested. Nearly all of these predictions were for short term predictions, from a day to a month, sometimes three months. From a random sample of 60 of these predictions, Cayces accuracy rate was 53% Even though his individual stock calls failed half the time, his speculative clients could have fared quite well. Only in a few cases would they have lost money, about 40% of the time they would have made nothing and about half the time they would have made money.
The clear and obvious pattern in Cayces stock market predictions is simple. The shorter in time the perspective is, the less accurate the precognition. The longer in time the perspective is, the greater the accuracy of clairvoyance becomes, over 95%. There is another pattern as well. The smaller or more individualized the "group" is, the less predictable it is. The larger the group is, the more predictable.
No where else in the Cayce mosaic does this pattern reveal itself but we should not be surprised to find it. Cayces metaphysical readings laid it all out explicitly. The years were easy for prophecy, he claimed, but the days and weeks could shift in pattern as humans changed their minds. Speaking of using psychic knowledge about the stock market specifically, Cayce said:
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When Cayce said "very closely", he also told Mr. 311 that the psychic channel would have to follow the situation hour by hour to foresee all of the flurries of ups and downs which result from the changing expression of human will in the stock market.
I summarized Kahns stock picks separately from Blumenthal et al. Cayces predictions for Kahn were about 5% more accurate, 61.54%. From this I conclude that Kahn did exaggerate a bit, but not really by much if one keeps in mind that Cayce heavily qualified the notion of using clairvoyance for the individual stock picks, as in his statement above. Kahn most likely attributed the failures to these changing conditions.
We can see from this elementary pattern that Cayces work demonstrates very precisely at least one of the limits to precognition, even if that clairvoyance is supported by an impressive army of intelligence from "third party" on the "other side" and/or elsewhere. Apparently human free will in the short term is too spontaneous in its effects and manipulations for any intelligence to see all outcomes precisely. Is there any wonder then why Cayce both personally and in his readings declaimed involvement in "fortune telling". Over and over again he instructed people to exercise their own free will and find expression within "the general patterns". He usually qualified highly individualized, specific predictions with conditionals and the measured results of such predictions clearly demonstrates why. A short term, specific prediction concerning events which involve human will has only slightly better odds than chance.
But in the longer run of things, the human herd moves in predictable patterns, the longer the frame of reference, and the more people involved, the more predictable the outcome. This relationship is clearly seen in the stock predictions but it does not appear so obviously in the predictions about political history since most of them are fairly long range.
Even if the pattern cannot be directly seen in the political history predictions, the small number of errors which appear in Cayces political predictions correlate very well with this pattern. He wasnt wrong very often but when he was wrong, it was about small numbers of people in periods of a few months to a couple of years. (But there in one exception to this generalization, he was wrong about certain events in China).
In the remaining pages of this chapter I have created the historical mosaic for Cayces stock predictions. First the general stock market, then followed at the end by a selection of calls from a sample of individual stock picks.
The remainder of this chapter is available as part of an e-book or in a paperback or hardbound book.
This sample text originated from the first edition in 2000. Changes and corrections were made to approximately half of all pages. To purchase this book in e-book (Open Document PDF format) or as a paperback or hardbound book, click on Cosmic Catalog.